Read the latest 2024 NFL mock draft from The Athletic’s draft expert, Dane Brugler

Last week, The Athletic draft guru Dane Brugler teed up his preseason 2024 NFL Draft rankings. This week, Austin Mock released his projected win totals for every NFL team.

The natural next step? Our first mock draft of the season.

And, no surprise here, the quarterback prospects look like they will again drive the conversation between now and April. There are several other very talented prospects who could storm the top 10 — maybe even top five — before all is done, though.

How does it all play out right before college football gets in full swing? Using an order built off those win totals, draft experts Diante Lee (selecting for teams on the odd numbers) and Nick Baumgardner (on the evens) take a look.

Projected wins: 5.7

After a phenomenal, Heisman-winning 2022 campaign, Williams got a head start on the rest of the QB class with an efficient four-TD performance against San Jose State on Saturday. I made mention of it during that game, but I’m intrigued to see whether Williams is saving his legs and throws into tight windows for the opponents that require his best play — or if he’s trying to prove that he’s the best pocket passer in this class, too.

Projected wins: 5.7

Justin Fields’ final receiving corps at Ohio State was one of the most talented college football has seen in years: Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jameson Williams. Harrison, whom Fields missed by one year, already has been better in college than any of those current NFL players. Bears fans aren’t going to love this win total, but they will love the idea of landing this guy.

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Projected wins for Houston: 5.8

You almost never see a potential first-round talent like Verse return to school when he’s draft-eligible, but I don’t expect the extra attention and expectations to stall Verse’s 2023 performance. After transferring to Florida State from Albany, his 17 tackles for loss and 9 sacks last season earned him all-conference honors. Verse is a twitchy edge rusher with the flexibility to bend and the motor to win with effort and counters. Short of injury, it’s hard to see a pass rusher of his caliber falling out of the top five next April.

Projected wins: 5.9

Had Fashanu left school last year (as many expected he would), it’s possible he’d have gone in the top 10. A massive human with elite length, Fashanu plays with terrific balance and lateral quickness as a lightning-quick pass protector. We need to see a nastier finish in the run game this season, but Fashanu has every tool. He’s definitely a player the Colts could use.

Projected wins: 6.4

We’re not trading picks in this mock draft, but let’s be clear: No team is getting access to a quarterback as talented as Maye without trading into the top three (and I’m looking at Chicago as a trade-back option).

Maye has an impressive combination of physical gifts and control of his offense, as he rarely makes poor decisions or throws inaccurate passes. He navigates the pocket well and knows when to escape, and he has the speed to punish a defense when its back is turned. With his potential, Maye could become one of the new, young “supercomputer” types in the pocket — think Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence or Dak Prescott.

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Projected wins: 6.9

Mims could wind up leapfrogging Fashanu for OT1 in this class before we get to draft week. The Georgia lineman, who turns 21 in October, is still very light on experience. He moves like Fashanu, though, and at 6-foot-7 and 330 pounds is actually the bigger prospect. New England loves athletic linemen; Mims is that and then some.

Projected wins: 7.3

You could flip the order between Turner and Verse in this class, and I wouldn’t blink an eye — both edge rushers have star potential. During his first two years at Alabama, Turner lined up opposite Will Anderson Jr., and still produced a combined 12.5 sacks and 18 tackles for loss. This season is an opportunity for Turner to cash in on his potential as a freaky speed rusher and cement himself in the top-five conversation.

8. Chicago Bears (via Carolina): J.T. Tuimoloau, Edge, Ohio State

Projected wins for Carolina: 7.3

The Bears should be in a very good spot next spring, perhaps not unlike what Detroit just enjoyed. The 2024 first-round pick they acquired from Carolina  this year (so the Panthers could take Bryce Young) might land even higher than this slot. For now, we’ve got GM Ryan Poles selecting the draft’s best non-QB (Harrison) and a high-floor pass rusher with room to grow.

Projected wins: 7.4

Outside of Williams and Maye, Leonard is the 2024 QB I’m willing to bet the house on. He checks the box on every necessary tool needed to thrive in today’s NFL: arm talent to make every throw, agility to evade rushers and speed to create offense as a scrambler. At 20 years old, he’s not close to being a finished product. He needs to add touch to his passing portfolio to beat zone coverage, but everything else you’d want to see is there.

Projected wins: 7.5

It should be a good year to need a quarterback. Williams and Maye could go 1-2, while Leonard, McCarthy and Quinn Ewers all have first-round tools. Their performances this season — and the order in which QB-needy teams fall — will determine how this shakes out. But new Washington OC Eric Bieniemy can find a talent upgrade next spring.

McCarthy’s arm talent was better than his polish last year, but his ceiling is high.

Projected wins: 7.5

The most talented coverage player in this class, McKinstry should be in any top-10 conversation between now and April. His size and length allow him to play aggressively at the line of scrimmage and at the catch point, plus he has the hip fluidity to cover the entire route tree. He hasn’t produced much in the way of turnovers in his career (two interceptions), but he has enough ball skills (15 passes defended last season) and return abilities to make game-changing plays.

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Projected wins: 7.9

Latham also figures to be in the discussion for OT1 next spring, so Green Bay adding to an already exciting, young O-line and landing him at No. 12 would be outstanding value. Another incredibly long tackle, Latham might be the safest of the trio taken so far (including Fashanu and Mims) — and possibly the best run blocker on the board. He’d be perfect for the wide zones in Green Bay.

Projected wins: 8.2

Positional value and projected team needs are the only reasons Bowers falls out of the top 10 in this mock draft. And sending him to a play caller like Sean Payton is too good an opportunity to pass on.

Bowers is like a 6-4, 240-pound Cooper Kupp — he’s way too talented to be guarded by even a defense’s best safety, linebacker or slot corner. He creates more offense after the catch than you’d expect of a tight end and has the potential to run a full route tree. He won’t be a total bully in the run game, but he’s good enough to stay on the field for all three downs.

Projected wins: 8.3

Penn State people are already tossing around Micah Parsons comps here, which can get a little dangerous. However, Robinson’s versatile athleticism and twitch are reminiscent of the former Nittany Lions and current Cowboys star. Robinson posted a near 20-percent win rate last season. He is mostly untapped potential at the moment, but he’s got a lot of it.

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Projected wins: 8.3

Joey Porter Jr. has looked like a stud in coverage so far, but the Pittsburgh Steelers don’t have much around him at cornerback. Levi Wallace — a good value signing — has a contract which expires after 2023, and Patrick Peterson has too many miles on his body not to evaluate him on a year-to-year basis.

With as much press coverage as the Steelers like to play, Wiggins would be an easy fit. He is more of a technician than a physical corner, but he’s smooth enough to handle the entire route tree and, at 6-2, would help give Pittsburgh long-term answers on the perimeter.

Projected wins: 8.5

Some NFL scouts viewed King as equal to or even better than Porter, his former teammate, as a prospect. King’s play in man coverage was not only just as physical as Porter’s, it also was more efficient. A Detroit native, King ranked No. 20 nationally last year with 18 pass breakups.

Projected wins: 8.6

There already seems to be some anxiety from Vikings fans over Andrew Booth Jr.’s long-term outlook, and this defensive backfield desperately needs more talent. DeJean is versatile in coverage, comfortable playing in the slot or on the perimeter — and he can play safety if he’s needed. His best traits are his change of direction and short-area quickness, and we saw in 2022 that he’s among the best in this class at playing the ball in the air (five INTs).

Projected wins: 8.6

Another good, young offensive tackle prospect, Alt could wind up much higher than 18 come spring. The son of former Chiefs star lineman John Alt, he played QB, linebacker and tight end in high school before committing as a 260-pound OT. He’s still reshaping his body and power, but his ceiling is very high.

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Projected wins: 9.0

Paul is a big guy — and that may serve as the entire scouting report. At 6-7 with an 85-plus inch wingspan (per our draft guru, Dane Brugler), Paul eventually will walk into the NFL with the measurables needed to handle any kind of athlete on the edge. Miami would take any insurance it can find at this position, too: Terron Armstead is aging and struggling to stay healthy, Austin Jackson hasn’t delivered, and the backup tackles are a problem. While he improves his lower-body strength, Paul can thrive in a zone scheme that uses play action.

Projected wins: 9.0

There was not a full-time cornerback in college football who was better playing man coverage last year, with fewer mistakes and penalties, than Newton. A highly confident cover corner who never loses himself in coverage, Newton’s speed is enough to run with anybody, and his competitiveness is exactly what a team like Detroit is looking for at the position.

Projected wins for Cleveland: 9.1

Building the modern Shanahan-style offense requires an explosive yards-after-catch player to feed via play action, and Nabers may be the best receiver in this class with the ball in his hands. He’s tough enough to work through tight windows in the middle of the field, and he’s an asset in contested-catch situations. Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud needs a go-to guy on the perimeter as soon as he can get it — preferably, one on the same kind of development timeline — and Nabers has star potential.

Projected wins: 9.1

The explosive 295-pound Newton finished No. 2 in pressures (59) among FBS defensive tackles last season, and he picked up 14 tackles for loss during his sophomore campaign, on a ferocious defense. Newton plays with a terrific motor and is violent at the point of attack. His hustle and ability to cause disruption would be great in Brandon Staley’s scheme.

Projected wins: 9.1

Kinchens is a rangy playmaker at safety, and that’s one of the only pieces missing from Robert Saleh’s Jets defense. Kinchens has the necessary instincts to affect the passing game from the middle of the field — it felt as though each of his six interceptions last season came from having an early bead on the quarterback’s intentions. He’s a willing tackler and will drop the hammer on ball carriers, but it’s not always technically sound, which makes 2023 an important year for Kinchens to round out his game.

Projected wins: 9.5

It’s very possible that we’re way too low on Ewers here. The Vikings could be intrigued, along with teams like Denver or even Atlanta. Like McCarthy and Leonard, Ewers has top-20 potential. Also like McCarthy, specifically, he’s more arm talent than polish right now. But he also hasn’t had a full season as a healthy starter yet. Ewers also won’t turn 21 until next March.

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Projected wins: 9.9

We haven’t really seen Maason Smith since 2021, after he missed almost all of last year with an ACL tear. And he’s been suspended for LSU’s season-opener against Florida State for receiving improper benefits.

However, what Smith produced during his freshman season was enough to grab everyone’s attention. At 6-5, 300, he has explosive strength, as well as a high ceiling as a pass rusher because of his athletic traits. Smith spent some time out at defensive end in 2021 — which is a bit too far from the ball given his size — but you could see his ability to anchor in the run game. NFL scouts still want to see a higher motor from Smith, but the Jaguars might be willing to bet on the tools.

Projected wins: 10.3

A member of Bruce Feldman’s “Freaks List,” Suamataia is an incredibly explosive, fast, gigantic human, and he should be able to drop jaws once he gets to the NFL combine. He’s very similar to ex-BYU OT Blake Freeland (Round 4, No. 106 by Indianapolis in April), although Suamataia might be more athletic. Also like Freeland, he has a lot of technique work ahead of him. Kyle Shanahan could have a lot of fun here.

Projected wins: 10.3

Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has added some power and versatility to his unit over the years, but speed is still the bedrock principle of his philosophy. Mondon has it in droves. His physical frame is similar to Devin Lloyd’s when he was coming out of Utah, but Mondon’s feel for the game and tackling are much further along. He’s fluid in coverage and projects well as a weakside backer, in the mold of a Dre Greenlaw.

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Projected wins: 10.5

A lot of elite college football players claim they could’ve made a career as a Division I basketball player. We actually have proof with Coleman, who got into six games as a freshman for Tom Izzo at Michigan State. The most athletically gifted X receiver in the class, Coleman, who transferred to Florida State this offseason, could be a lot of fun paired up with Joe Burrow.

Projected wins: 10.7

I’m sure Ravens fans would love to have Baltimore’s edge-rusher rotation bolstered as early as possible, but it’s hard to project guys like Laiatu Latu, Braelen Trice or Jack Sawyer as being the immediate contributors this defense needs. Instead of doing the typical Ravens thing and drafting the best premium-position player, here we’ll add one more weapon for Lamar Jackson and OC Todd Monken in the passing game. Sanders is an ideal option as a flex tight end, with enough long speed and leaping ability to stress a defense up the seams.

Projected wins: 10.7

Guyton started out as a DT at TCU before transitioning to the offensive line, and he hasn’t stopped improving since. Another highly athletic offensive tackle with limited experience, Guyton transferred to Oklahoma in 2022 and has just five starts to date. The tools, however, are exactly what you’re looking for in a first-round OT.

Projected wins: 11.2

The talking point has been discussed ad nauseam, but it bears emphasizing how well-positioned Philadelphia is to turn over its roster from aging veterans to younger, cheaper talent. This franchise does need to focus some draft capital on the offensive line, so a versatile piece like Zinter would be a high-floor option. He could provide quality depth at multiple spots up front while he carves out his own role. Zinter can move well enough to get to the second level, has just enough anchor to help move bodies on double teams and is technically sound as a pass protector.

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32. Kansas City Chiefs: Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia

Projected wins: 12.0

Kirby Smart and Georgia love big, physical, athletic corners. Lassiter is the latest example.

Perhaps a better zone prospect right now, Lassiter plays with great burst and quickness, showing an ability to quickly close on the football in the air. Lassiter could climb higher than this spot by next spring — or, as was the case with Kelee Ringo, he could slide. The thing about Georgia’s corners is that the Bulldogs’ schedule will sort it out for you.

(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; Photos: Michael Reaves, Ezra Shaw, Michael Hickey / Getty Images )



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