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A beginner’s guide to the 2024 NFL Draft: No. 1 pick, trade rumors, full order and more

23 April 2024

The Athletic has around-the-clock coverage of the NFL Draft. Follow our NFL Draft live blog and check out Dane Brugler’s all-encompassing draft guide, “The Beast,” and his breakdown of the top 300 prospects available.

Once a year, every year, the ground beneath the football world moves.

Welcome back to the NFL Draft.

The 2024 NFL Draft, live from Detroit, kicks off Thursday night with one of the best and deepest quarterback classes we’ve seen in years. But that’s not all. Not even close. This is a talent-rich draft at a number of positions, and trade rumors have been rampant for months. Will we see four quarterbacks selected in the first four picks? Who’s going No. 1? Which teams are going to trade? Who’s going to stand pat?

Let’s get you caught up.

GO DEEPER

NFL Draft 2024 ‘The Beast’ Guide: Dane Brugler’s scouting reports and player rankings

Who has the No. 1 pick in the draft?

A year after trading the No. 1 pick to the Carolina Panthers, the Chicago Bears are back in the top spot — thanks to the picks they acquired in that original deal.

Carolina dealt picks 9 and 61 to Chicago last March, along with a 2024 first-rounder, 2025 second-rounder and wide receiver DJ Moore, in exchange for the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, which the Panthers then used on Alabama QB Bryce Young. They finished with the league’s worst record (2-15), though, in Young’s rookie season, essentially gifting Chicago its top pick back.

With it, the Bears have a chance to add something they’ve yet to experience in the Super Bowl era: a legit game-altering quarterback.

Chicago made real strides in 2023, one season removed from having the worst record in the league itself. The Bears have drafted and developed toughness along the offensive line, found a star cornerback in Jaylon Johnson and now actually appear ready to embrace a rookie quarterback. (Which one? We’ll get to that shortly.)

Bears GM Ryan Poles made his draft direction obvious earlier this spring by ending an awkward situation and trading 2021 first-round pick Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a sixth-round pick. With seven wins a year ago, including four over their final six games, the Bears do appear to be a quarterback away from a playoff-level roster. We’ll see if they can land one this week.

Who has the most (and the fewest) picks in the NFL Draft?

Arizona has the most draft capital. The Cardinals also happen to be the team with the biggest opportunity to take a significant leap forward during this draft. Not only do they have 11 picks in all, but a staggering seven of those sit within the top 104 slots — and three are in the top 40. Arizona, which continues to roll with Kyler Murray at QB, also could be in position to land a major trade haul from a QB-needy team that wants to come up. (The Cardinals hold pick No. 4 in Round 1.)

Much like the Houston Texans a year ago, Arizona has the chance to be aggressive on the board while continuing to add quality depth to an already promising young team. It’s a huge opportunity for GM Monti Ossenfort.

Conversely, the Cleveland Browns have the least draft capital this year. They’re still paying the price for their blockbuster Deshaun Watson trade of 2022 (Houston holds Cleveland’s first-round slot) and won’t pick until No 54. The Browns have just two picks in the top 150 this year.

Who will be the No. 1 pick in the draft?

The safe bet is USC quarterback Caleb Williams. A 6-foot-1, 215-pounder from Washington, D.C., Williams is the current face of college football’s NIL era (he’s a millionaire and not afraid to talk about it), and he offers a rare combination of pocket mobility, arm talent and spatial awareness. He’s a mobile quarterback in the pocket, but his eyes are always up — meaning a ton of his big plays come off-script, as his ability to keep plays alive while receivers reset is unmatched in this class.

An impact player from the moment he touched the field in college, Williams has the type of improvisational skills mastered by Patrick Mahomes.

This is a very talented quarterback class, especially at the top, but what separates Williams —aside from his ability to pull rabbits out of his hat — is how intelligent a player he is with the ball in his hands. Much of what he does comes with risk (33 career fumbles), but his touchdown-to-interception rate across more than 1,000 college attempts was 93-to-14.

Williams is all but locked in at No. 1, so the biggest questions at this point are who goes No. 2, and then who goes No. 3? North Carolina QB Drake Maye, LSU QB Jayden Daniels and Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy are the obvious options, but Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. is a wild card. LSU WR Malik Nabers might be, too.

We’re likely to see a run on quarterbacks in the first four picks, due to the number of QB-needy teams at the top (and throughout), but both Harrison and Nabers will grade as top-three prospects on a number of NFL boards.

Will there be trades?

Oh, yeah.

The Minnesota Vikings lost QB Kirk Cousins to the Atlanta Falcons in free agency and almost immediately responded by acquiring an extra first-round pick from Houston — the exact type of move that suggests a team is ready to move up in the draft for a quarterback. Minnesota sits at Nos. 11 and 23 in Round 1.

How high can the Vikings climb, though? The Bears (as mentioned), Commanders and Patriots all need quarterbacks — and they hold picks 1, 2 and 3, respectively. New England is the best trade-down candidate of those three teams, but its new top exec, Eliot Wolf, comes from the Green Bay school of not starting a rebuild without a QB. Owner Robert Kraft appears to be itching for a new star passer to launch the post-Bill Belichick era, as well.

Arizona, at No. 4, could be the team looking to move back, though nothing’s really a guarantee there, either. The Cardinals doesn’t need a quarterback, but they’re also already sitting on that stockpile of picks. It’s possible the Cardinals stay put and select an elite receiver (Harrison or Nabers), which in turn would hand Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers, at No. 5, the keys to the trade-down kingdom.

The Broncos could throw their hat in the ring as a team looking to move up. The Raiders still need a quarterback, too. No matter what movement happens, it’s tough to see any of those top four QB prospects (Williams, Maye, Daniels and McCarthy) lasting beyond the top five picks.

What is the current draft order?

The Round 1 draft order for Thursday night, as of April 23:

The full draft order — all 257 scheduled picks — can be found here. If you want to dive in even deeper, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler released a full seven-round mock draft last week.

Oregon’s Bo Nix could sneak into the first round of this year’s draft. (John E. Moore III / Getty Images)

Prospects to watch in the 2024 NFL Draft

Dane Brugler’s scouting guide, “The Beast,” is your ultimate go-to for literally every name you will hear drafted this year. However, outside of the quarterbacks, here are 10 key prospects to watch.

1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

One of the most polished receiver prospects we’ve seen in at least a decade, Harrison’s best NFL comp might be his Hall of Fame father, Marvin Harrison — but the son is bigger and stronger. In his two years as a starter with the Buckeyes, Harrison showed an ability to track off-target throws at an insane rate. There’s not a route Marvin Harrison Jr. can’t run. He can play any receiver spot in any offense, and he can win at the line of scrimmage, at the top of his route or in the air. His hands are strong and reliable.

He entered Ohio State’s program with a big-time rep, saw more junk coverage than any receiver in America and still carried the Buckeyes’ offense at times. He was more or less a professional athlete in college and will be ready to roll on Day 1.

2. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

There will be teams that have Nabers ranked higher than Harrison — which isn’t a shot at Harrison, but rather a statement of Nabers’ talent. In three years with LSU, the 6-foot, 199-pound lightning bolt made a combined 189 catches for 3,003 yards and 21 touchdowns. Daniels’ Heisman run last season was more or less sponsored by Nabers. The receiver’s explosion at the line of scrimmage and ability to accelerate, both from a dead stop and in the second level, are elite traits.

Nabers posted a 42-inch vertical jump at LSU’s pro day and ran a 4.38-second 40-yard dash. Still just 20 years old, Nabers doesn’t have Harrison’s size or strength, but his game-changing speed/explosion and dependability as a route runner make him a potential future star.

Washington WR Rome Odunze is no slouch, either. Look for him to join Harrison and Nabers in the top 10.

3. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

One of the rare college tight ends who was physically ready for the NFL as a true freshman, Bowers was a three-year dynamo as a receiver and a blocker at Georgia — the prototype for the modern tight end. He can block inline or out in space. He can win in the slot, beat some corners and safeties in press and get to just about anything in the air with consistent, powerful hands.

A great route runner with real speed in space, Bowers’ work after the catch is more similar to a receiver or a running back than a traditional tight end.

Bowers is ready to be an impact player, at a critical position, for just about any offense. Of course, tight ends traditionally are not as highly valued as receivers in the draft — which means a team in the teens could be getting an absolute steal.

4. Graham Barton, OL, Duke

Between prospects at the top of the draft, like OTs Joe Alt and Olu Fashanu, and depth at the bottom, this is a talented group of offensive tackles. But there are also a bunch of versatile linemen with exciting futures, and Barton might be among the best.

He arrived at Duke as a center and earned freshman All-America status in 2020, then moved to left tackle and was a second-team All-American with 32 consecutive starts outside. Strong enough to do whatever he wants up front, Barton’s size and athleticism make him the rare five-position candidate for an offensive line. He’s arguably the top center in the class.

5. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

This is an offense-heavy draft at the top, and the debate over the top defender might rage into Thursday night.

Arnold, a third-year sophomore from Alabama, has a case as the most complete cornerback in this draft — and arguably the most complete defender, period. A physical, fearless tackler in space, Arnold showed terrific feet and general IQ last year as a lockdown corner for the Tide. He’s a highly intelligent player with a ton of football character and has the swagger necessary to play the position.

We’ll see if he’s the top defender off the board, or if someone like Arnold’s Alabama teammate, Dallas Turner — a super-athletic edge — can claim that billing. It’s also not a guarantee Arnold is the first cornerback taken, as Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell has everything Arnold does (with more speed).

6. Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia

The most QB-friendly wide receiver in a draft class filled with them, McConkey makes his outside releases in a hiccup and almost never takes a wrong step during a route. A full-body route runner who works back to the ball and resets if his quarterback is in trouble, McConkey is one of this draft’s craftiest athletes at using route nuance to set up and beat bigger, faster defenders.

He’s a quarterback’s best friend. There are a ton of young QBs in the NFL right now — and, as we’ve covered, there are about to be more — so reliable targets like McConkey are worth their weight in gold.

7. Mike Sainristil, DB, Michigan

The most unique prospect from last year’s national championship Michigan team, Sainristil is a two-time captain who played offense, defense and special teams as a Wolverine. He spent his first three years at WR, then his last two in the secondary.

As a defender for the country’s top defense in 2023, Sainristil did a bit of everything — nickel, safety, outside corner and an active role in the box. Incredibly smart and probably the most physically confident defensive back in the class, Sainristil is a fearless presence who is never in the wrong spot and always seems to be around the football.

Much was made about the turnaround at Michigan during the tail end of the Harbaugh tenure. No individual player did more to help change the locker room culture than Sainristil. He’ll make others better, and whichever team lands him will see that quickly.

8. Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

Nix enters the draft after a fascinating college career that saw him go from a five-star recruit who struggled for three years at Auburn to a resurrected, polished leader at Oregon the last two years. The difference between his performances at those two stops was striking. In two years at Oregon, Nix threw for more than 8,000 yards with 74 touchdowns against just 10 interceptions.

Nix hit better than 77 percent of his passes last year, although most of them were underneath shots inside a very college-looking, up-tempo offense. Nix doesn’t have any truly elite traits, but he’s good at just about everything. If a team with a quality offensive line and capable run game drafts him, don’t be surprised if he turns heads.

9. Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington

The most polarizing player in the 2024 NFL Draft. The range on Penix’s draft stock this year has been discussed from Round 1 all the way to the bottom of Round 3. Though it’s a struggle to find enough data to evaluate a player like McCarthy, who orchestrated a run-heavy offense for a team that had the lead a lot, our cup runneth over with Penix — he threw nearly 1,700 college passes over six years of college ball.

Nearly 24 years old, and with multiple season-ending injuries in his rearview, Penix has authored a tale of perseverance and toughness.

Owner of the prettiest deep ball in the country, Penix threw for more than 13,000 career yards as a college player. There are caveats, though. Not only are the injuries a concern, but Penix is a stiff athlete without a lot of body twitch. He’s not a consistently accurate passer and was bailed out constantly by college football’s best WR trio. He misses layups and dosen’t throw over the middle with confidence.

Bet against him at your own risk, though. His mental fortitude is not to be challenged.

10. Jackson Powers-Johnson, OC, Oregon

The Rimington Trophy (presented to college football’s top center) normally goes to a veteran player who has played the position for a bit. Not last season. Powers-Johnson won it at age 20, showing dominant stretches inside as a super-athletic protector who can be a powerhouse in the run game. A guard and part-time defensive tackle early in his Oregon career, Powers-Johnson shifted over to center last season and emerged as a unanimous All-American and college football’s top center. He was downright dominant against older competition at the Senior Bowl in February.

The experience factor is real here, and it’s caused several evaluators to pump the brakes a bit on Powers-Johnson. But there are a bunch of teams who need a new prospect snapping the ball, and Powers-Johnson is a first-round talent. Where will he go?