AFL 2024: Power Rankings after Round 16, analysis, every club ranked, flag favourites, ladder, predictions, latest news

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

With just eight rounds left, a ridiculously close race for the eight is tough to predict. But at least one extraordinary outcome is alive.

What are the Power Rankings? This is our attempt to rank every AFL club from best to worst. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and/or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

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All times AEST.

1. SYDNEY SWANS (13-2, 144.2%)

Last week: Ranked 1st, lost to Fremantle by 1 pt

You can’t create a loss much closer than the one Sydney copped – by a point, after having a kick after the siren to win it, and in a game they pretty comfortably won on expected score. We’re not concerned about it at all. What we do want to note is the Swans’ horrific recent starts – they’re 18th in the AFL for first quarter points differential since Round 8. That’s the sort of factor that can be seriously exploited in a final, when things get even tighter and players are under more pressure. We’re generally picking flaws in a masterpiece when we criticise the Swans this year but they can’t rest on their laurels; they have to keep getting better to guarantee themselves flag favouritism, especially if they’re going to have to overcome a Victorian team in the Grand Final.

This week: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:20pm

2. CARLTON (11-4, 118.5%)

Last week: Ranked 2nd, def Richmond by 61 pts

We’re not pushing them up into the No.1 spot based on a big win over lowly Richmond plus a very narrow loss by Sydney against a good team. But we would be happy to entertain the argument the Blues are now flag favourites. Since being belted off the SCG by the Swans, they’ve had better results and built a stronger statistical argument, and more to the point as the clear favourites for second on the ladder they probably won’t have to return to the SCG. As long as they win their qualifying final, the Blues wouldn’t have to leave the MCG again this season, and the gap between Sydney and Carlton is close enough that having home ground advantage could swing the Grand Final. After all we’ve had quite a few recent flag deciders where the teams were pretty even but the Victorian side won. It’s almost like it’s a bit unfair…

This week: GWS Giants at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 7:30pm

3. BRISBANE LIONS (8-6-1, 121%)

Last week: Ranked 3rd, def Melbourne by 5 pts

With almost two thirds of the season in the books, the reverse split between Brisbane’s home and away form is genuinely bizarre. Three of their six losses have come at their Gabba fortress plus two results that really should’ve been smashings, hosting St Kilda and Melbourne, were bizarrely close. They very easily could have lost to the Demons last Friday night if the visitors hadn’t stalled. You could say there’s a silver lining to all of this, though; if the Lions aren’t a much better team at home, maybe it won’t matter if they have to come from outside the top four (thus playing finals interstate) to win it all?

This week: Adelaide Crows at the Gabba, Sunday 4:10pm

4. WESTERN BULLDOGS (8-7, 120.2%)

Last week: Ranked 4th, def North Melbourne by 17 pts

They weren’t exactly convincing against the Kangaroos, making some pretty simple mistakes on route to the victory, but last year’s Dogs probably would’ve found away to throw away the four points. This time they were good enough to get the job done and that’s still important because of their tricky draw – the next month is brutal with Port Adelaide, Geelong and Sydney all away, plus Carlton under the roof. If they’re as good as we think they are – since Round 11, they’re 4th for points scored, 1st for points from clearances, 3rd for defensive 50 to forward 50 percentage and 2nd for inside 50 differential – they should win at least two and maybe three of those games. That would probably be enough for a finals spot with games against Melbourne, Adelaide, North and GWS in their last month. They wouldn’t want to leave it too late though.

This week: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 1:45pm

5. FREMANTLE (9-5-1, 111.3%)

Last week: Ranked 6th, def Sydney by 1 pt

How important is goalkicking? In their first clash with the Swans, the Dockers were a staggering 38 points under their expected score, kicking terribly and turning what should’ve been a close one into a laugher. In their second, they were 21 points over expectation, pinching a win they arguably shouldn’t have nabbed. But that’s how footy is sometimes, and not only did Freo announce themselves as a genuine top-four threat – regardless of the goalkicking they inarguably played very well, Nat Fyfe doing a great job on Isaac Heeney – they banked themselves a win few expected them to have. Unless they truly fall apart from here, a first qualifying final appearance since 2015 looms, and they will not fear a repeat trip to Sydney.

This week: Richmond at Optus Stadium, Saturday 8:10pm

6. COLLINGWOOD (8-5-2, 105.8%)

Last week: Ranked 5th, lost to Gold Coast by 11 pts

We don’t think Collingwood has “lost its aura”, as Jonathan Brown suggested on On the Couch. They are going to feel inevitable any time they’re trailing at three-quarter-time and start coming back. But the Gold Coast game was what many experts have been saying for months, if not years – at some point teams will take advantage of their kamikaze style and go the other way to score, rather than wilting. That the Suns, who have never found a challenge they can’t faceplant in front of, were the ones to do it is surprising though they’re a pretty damn good team at home. The Pies won a flag while continuing to trail at three-quarter-time in many games, so we know they can do it, but they’d make things much easier on themselves if they didn’t have to keep coming back. And it does feel like Craig McRae knows that.

This week: Essendon at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm

7. HAWTHORN (8-8, 97.9%)

Last week: Ranked 8th, def West Coast by 61 pts

At some point this run stops, right? You can’t just be 0-5 and nowhere near contending, and then win seven of eight to become the hottest team in footy, not when you’re this young with clear list holes… right? Given they end the season with Richmond and North Melbourne, it’s really just a case of winning at least three of their next five games. The Cats in Geelong, the Dockers in Tassie and the Pies at the G are all fascinating tests; you’d certainly think the Hawks’ midfield takes advantage of Geelong’s weakened group, Freo travels poorly and the Pies always struggle with the brown and gold. And yet losing all three would also be excusable when you look at the big picture of where Hawthorn should be at. They’re such a fascinating team and if they keep charging, they will quickly become the story of the season – which is crazy given how good Sydney’s been, and how big a premiership contending Carlton would be.

This week: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

8. GOLD COAST SUNS (8-7, 106%)

Last week: Ranked 13th, def Collingwood by 11 pts

It wasn’t just that they beat Collingwood, but the manner in which they did it. To actually take advantage of the Magpies’ aggressiveness, and not wilt in the face of their barnstorming comeback, was a huge tick for the maturity of this side. And let’s be real here – if they can become anything close playing away to the team they are playing at home, they’re a legit top-eight team, no question. So now’s the chance to stop repeating the exact same season, where they sit on the fringe of the eight with a couple of months left and then fall apart. With away games remaining against the bottom three, and winnable home games against wobbly pair Port Adelaide and Melbourne, there is a clear path to 13 wins and a finals berth on offer. Can they take it?

This week: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:45pm

9. PORT ADELAIDE (9-6, 101.1%)

Last week: Ranked 10th, def St Kilda by 2 pts

As discussed in this week’s Run Home, even though on paper the Power are a reasonable finals chance after getting past St Kilda, we just struggle to see their path to 13 wins. You would almost think it comes down to this Saturday, as while the Bulldogs aren’t actually in the eight, they’re certainly one of the best eight teams right now – Port need a scalp and fast. We know exactly what this team is, and we know exactly what Ken Hinkley is; they look brilliant at their best and horrific at their worst. No-one is questioning his emotional ties to the playing group. Is all of that enough to sneak into the eight when so many teams are in the mix? It just doesn’t feel like it, but who knows?

This week: Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 1:45pm

10. GEELONG (9-6, 106.2%)

Last week: Ranked 11th, def Essendon by 45 pts

It’s hard to tell exactly how much the win over Essendon means because of the circumstances – the weird free kicks, the rain, and the weirdness of the Bombers being a top-four team nobody really thinks is at that level. It was certainly a good and important win, because had the Cats lost both Saturday night’s and this Saturday’s games, they would’ve been in massive strife. Much like their 7-0 start has given them a lot of margin for error, they can now afford a loss to the Hawks and still be in the finals mix. Few will be frightened of them come September if Chris Scott’s men just limp in there by beating bad teams – and they play a few of them on the run home – but we would still consider a finals berth a successful bounce-back season. Especially since they clearly have no interest in a proper rebuild and would rather keep regenerating on the run.

This week: Hawthorn at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm

11. GWS GIANTS (8-7, 108.4%)

Last week: Ranked 7th, lost to Adelaide by 16 pts

It’s fitting the Giants play Carlton this week, because the two teams’ paths since last year’s preliminary finals have diverged so much. If the Blues had started hot but then faded awfully to be outside the eight, Michael Voss would be under immense pressure, given the talent at his disposal. As David King said on Sunday night’s First Crack the Giants risk being one of the most talented lists to miss the finals in many years; they seem like they want for nothing yet pretty much everyone is underperforming. Sam Taylor’s absence was keenly felt against the Crows, for sure, but that wasn’t the sole reason they lost. We’re most concerned about the Green/e-s, who have each regressed in strange ways, the midfielder just not damaging enough and the forward bizarrely poor in one-on-ones and in front of goal. They can still recover and challenge from the bottom half of the eight if they pull things together but we can no longer trust them to do that.

This week: Carlton at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 7:30pm

12. ESSENDON (9-5-1, 99%)

Last week: Ranked 9th, lost to Geelong by 45 pts

Their first big test on a tricky run home and they failed it. Hmm. Don’t get fooled by the Bombers still sitting fourth on the ladder – if they lose on Friday night, they could easily be eighth by the end of the round, and they’re only six points ahead of Hawthorn in 13th. And so while we still think Essendon is at least good, the margins are so tight this season that what feels like a safe position simply isn’t. Losses to the Magpies and Melbourne over the next fortnight could see them needing to fight their way back into September… but at the same time they could quickly consolidate their position. Heaps to play for.

This week: Collingwood at the MCG, Friday 7:40pm

13. MELBOURNE (8-7, 99.9%)

Last week: Ranked 12th, lost to Brisbane by 5 pts

We considered moving the Demons up after going shockingly close to beating Brisbane in Brisbane – which we completely waved off the prospect of – but someone has to be 13th of the 13 contenders and for now, it’s them. They’re not done; they should get the job done against West Coast, and while we expect they’ll lose to Freo in the west in a few weeks’ time, they can beat Essendon, GWS and Port Adelaide at the MCG. The Dees are competing for the same spots in the eight as those sides so the wins would be doubly important. We’ve been burned too many times believing in this group but they really should be good enough to play finals from here… we’re ready to be disappointed again.

This week: West Coast Eagles at the MCG, Sunday 1:10pm

14. ADELAIDE CROWS (5-9-1, 103.8%)

Last week: Ranked 14th, def GWS by 16 pts

In a parallel universe where they had started the season a bit better, Saturday night’s win over the Giants might’ve been a statement that the Crows truly are rising into contention. They might’ve just snuck into the eight with it. Instead they’re in no man’s land, where the result was mostly ignored. That is the lot of a team not-mathematically-but-realistically eliminated from the finals race coming out of the byes. We certainly would not have thought coming into 2024 that if there were going to be 13 teams in the finals mix with eight rounds left, the Crows would be outside of that group.

This week: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, Sunday 4:10pm

15. ST KILDA (5-10, 92.5%)

Last week: Ranked 15th, lost to Port Adelaide by 2 pts

The Saints are what they are. Perhaps the most concerning part of this season is the regression of their talented young guns; we can understand the midfield, which was always relatively weak, taking a step back but you want to see development in a season like this and it just hasn’t happened. It does seem a bit cruel putting them up against Sydney as the ladder leaders come off a very rare loss – but then that’s classic St Kilda, isn’t it? They always seem to face the team coming off a crisis.

This week: Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 3:20pm

16. RICHMOND (2-13, 63%)

Last week: Ranked 16th, lost to Carlton by 61 pts

A brave, surprisingly-close first half and then blown out in the second. Sunday was basically the Tigers’ season in a nutshell then. One suspects their second trip to WA this year won’t go well – though at least it’s another chance to show off Liam Baker and get a few of those Freo first-round picks…

This week: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Saturday 8:10pm

17. NORTH MELBOURNE (1-14, 64.1%)

Last week: Ranked 18th, lost to Western Bulldogs by 17 pts

This week: Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:45pm

18. WEST COAST EAGLES (3-12, 70.4%)

Last week: Ranked 17th, lost to Hawthorn by 61 pts

This week: Melbourne at the MCG, Sunday 1:10pm

We still think the Kangaroos are the wooden spoon favourites because of their win tally, but we have to give them some respect for a very solid month – beating West Coast, and then losing to three top-eight contenders by a combined 21 points. In contrast the Eagles have lost both of their games over the past fortnight by more than that total, including a pretty horrific loss to Hawthorn, giving back a lot of the progress they showed earlier in the season. We’re not saying West Coast is badly-placed long-term, they’re clearly on the rise, but the Kangaroos have shown serious signs of life over the past four weeks and deserve a little win. (Because obviously they will care about where we rank them.)