AFL 2024: Power Rankings after Round 18, analysis, every club ranked, flag favourites, ladder, predictions, latest news

Welcome back to the Power Rankings.

Sydney stands clear at the top but a new main threat to their dominance has emerged, while a former top-four side is exposed yet again.

What are the Power Rankings? This is our attempt to rank every AFL club from best to worst. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier and/or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.

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All times AEST.

1. SYDNEY SWANS (14-3, 145.3%)

Last week: Ranked 1st, def North Melbourne by 79 pts

It was easy to get swept up in the hysteria of consecutive losses – though as we noted both times, the Swans actually won both games on expected score. In fact they are 0-3 in close games this year, but we don’t hear anyone arguing they’re not training the right way! With Carlton falling off again, the ladder leaders are inarguably the flag favourite, because their main challengers have clear defensive flaws. Even if they end up in a Grand Final against Brisbane or Carlton there’ll be a point where Sydney smashes through the opposing defence and kicks six goals in 10 minutes, and that decides the game. Maybe the Swans lose to the Lions at the Gabba but that is arguably the toughest fixture in footy right now… outside of playing Sydney in Sydney. And it’d be hard for the Swans to play themselves unless we get into some parallel universe shenanigans.

This week: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, Sunday 1:10pm

2. BRISBANE LIONS (10-6-1, 120%)

Last week: Ranked 3rd, def West Coast by 13 pts

With six consecutive wins, the Lions are the hottest team in footy, and all of the underlying numbers suggest they’re Sydney’s main threat as it stands. After all, they and the Swans are the only teams in the top six for both points scored and points against. And they could certainly beat Sydney this week at home. But whe you go by the actual eye test, they’ve hardly looked convincing the last few weeks, have they? Melbourne and Adelaide were both within a couple of kicks (though the Crows weren’t as close as the margin suggested) while West Coast never went away on Sunday. We want to fully buy into Brisbane but we want to see more performances like the Port Adelaide obliteration, which was almost a month ago now.

This week: Sydney Swans at the Gabba, Sunday 1:10pm

3. CARLTON (11-6, 114.1%)

Last week: Ranked 2nd, lost to Western Bulldogs by 14 pts

We think they’re gonna host a qualifying final, so the Blues are clearly a leading contender, but history tells us you cannot win a flag with a defence like theirs. No AFL premier since 1999 has been outside the top six in points allowed, and Michael Voss’ side currently sits a woeful 15th ahead of only West Coast, Richmond and North Melbourne. The gap between them and the sixth-placed Lions is 139 points. This doesn’t have to be a hard-and-fast rule, and the Blues could certainly fix some things up and/or score enough to win three finals anyway. But Saturday’s loss was the fifth time they have conceded 100-plus points in 2024, and they’ve lost all of those games. Teams like Brisbane and Sydney are easily powerful enough to raise the bat in a final, which might end Carlton’s season.

This week: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm

4. WESTERN BULLDOGS (9-8, 114.9%)

Last week: Ranked 5th, def Carlton by 14 pts

The Bulldogs are in the same spot they’ve been for three seasons. In 2022, they were 10th with six games left, needing to win four games to make into the eight. They won four and made it. In 2023, they were 7th with six games left, needing to win four games to make the eight. They won three and missed. In 2024, they sit 10th with six games left, (probably) needing to win four games to make the eight. The difference is we think they’re a better team this year; yes, they’re inconsistent, but since mid-April they really haven’t been that up-and-down? Their losses were to Fremantle in Perth (fair enough, they’re a top-four contender), Hawthorn by seven points (and the Hawks look much better now than they did then), Sydney (the flag favourites), Brisbane (a big loss, but they’re clearly a flag contender too) and Port Adelaide away (which we can’t so easily explain). Pretty much all of those except the Power thumping were excusable. Geelong in Geelong is still a hard match-up, especially for the Dogs given their modern history against the Cats, but we really do believe in the quality of this team. If they miss the eight this time it will be a shame because even in a very even year, we’re very confident in saying they’re finals-calibre.

This week: Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 7:30pm

5. GEELONG (11-6, 110.6%)

Last week: Ranked 6th, def Collingwood by 20 pts

It’s been a tremendous coaching performance to get the Cats back into shape nearing the pointy end of the season, with the likes of Max Holmes, Tom Stewart and Sam De Koning being moved around, and Rising Star nominee Lawson Humphries a much-needed fresh face. In fact in combination with Rising Star winner chance Ollie Dempsey, the Cats continue to find quality young talent without heavily investing in the draft, which is a big reason why they don’t feel the need to truly rebuild. We’re still a little ways off from considering them a true contender, but they’re on track for the top four, and their professionalism makes them a threat in almost any final.

This week: Western Bulldogs at GMHBA Stadium, Saturday 7:30pm

6. FREMANTLE (10-6-1, 113.1%)

Last week: Ranked 4th, lost to Hawthorn by 13 pts

It says a lot about this season that a pretty good Freo team can travel and lose to the team in 13th – it sounds like a disastrous loss, but the Hawks are pretty good! But we still rate the Dockers, especially when you consider it’s the third time they’ve narrowly lost against a fellow finals contender on the road, adding in the back-to-back Adelaide Oval losses from earlier in the year. They likely won’t demolish Melbourne by 92 points again, but they still have plenty of wins left on their fixture, and if Brisbane or Geelong stumbles they’re well placed to pinch a berth in a qualifying final. Finishing 4th and facing Sydney at the SCG (again) remains on the cards…

This week: Melbourne at Optus Stadium, Sunday 3:20pm

7. GWS GIANTS (10-7, 109.8%)

Last week: Ranked 10th, def Richmond by 24 pts

The margins are so tight amongst the top-eight contenders right now that we have to push the Giants up after two consecutive wins – in fact, only four teams have won their last two. But don’t get fooled by the margin over Richmond, that was a weirdly close game, one the Giants actually lost on expected score. Kicking 17.6 (108) sounds like they got their offensive game going, but they did it from just 36 inside 50s, which is ridiculously efficient and very unsustainable. In fact at one stage they had kicked 13.4 from 25 inside 50s. We are not yet convinced the orange team is back at its best, though they’re well-positioned to play finals from here.

This week: Gold Coast Suns at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 1:45pm

8. HAWTHORN (9-8, 95.4%)

Last week: Ranked 11th, def Fremantle by 13 pts

Coming back to beat Fremantle might’ve been the most impressive part of the Hawks’ recent winning run, given the stakes (a loss would’ve made it almost impossible to play finals) and the quality of opposition. They showed maturity beyond their years while Sam Mitchell continued to bolster his credentials as one of the game’s best coaches without a flag. And now they get a Collingwood side who they usually beat even when the Magpies are actually good; right now, they’re not. The Geelong loss still wasn’t great but only Sydney has a better record since Round 6 than these Hawks; four wins from their last six may not be enough to make the eight, because of their percentage, but it’s staggering they’re even this close.

This week: Collingwood at the MCG, Saturday 4:35pm

9. PORT ADELAIDE (10-7, 103.4%)

Last week: Ranked 7th, lost to Gold Coast by 14 pts

Damien Hardwick told Fox Footy pre-game exactly how his side would counter the utterly predictable Power, and they did it, so even though Ken Hinkley’s team got quite a bit of the game on their own terms (+66 disposals and 120 uncontested marks were both season highs), it didn’t matter. They’re just so… bleh. Great at their best, terrible at their worst, but mostly just exactly what you expect them to be. There’s no world in which they completely fall apart and finish 13th, but also no world in which they become serious flag contenders over the next six weeks, either. So they’ll beat Richmond, and then they’ll lose to Carlton and Sydney. Write it down in pen, not pencil.

This week: Richmond at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:30pm

10. MELBOURNE (10-7, 105.5%)

Last week: Ranked 12th, def Essendon by 17 pts

The Demons have been pretty terrible in wet conditions in recent years – remember them getting blown away early against Carlton? – but the Bombers were worse on Saturday night, with the 2021 premiers sneakily fighting back into the finals race without much fanfare nor expectations. Getting a win without Max Gawn is mightily valuable and even if they lose to Freo, as you’d expect based on their last meeting, the Dees can certainly still earn themselves a spot in September. Are they premiership contenders? Nope. But fears they were severely falling off, at a time when their list is primed to success, have at least gone away.

This week: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Sunday 3:20pm

11. ESSENDON (10-6-1, 98.8%)

Last week: Ranked 8th, lost to Melbourne by 17 pts

Was Saturday night about the weather more than anything else? We know the Bombers like to keep possession, ranking No.1 in the AFL for uncontested possessions and No.4 for marks, but it’s hard to play a controlled game style at a wet MCG. Back under the roof at Marvel should give them the chance to record a second win over Adelaide this year, and put them two wins away from a finals return. We still expect the Dons to make the eight because their next four games are all winnable, but we remain totally unconvinced about them overall; since Round 13, they’re 10th for points scored (14th for points from turnovers) and 15th for points against (16th for points from turnover). That’s nowhere close to good enough.

This week: Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium, Friday 7:40pm

12. GOLD COAST SUNS (9-8, 106%)

Last week: Ranked 13th, def Port Adelaide by 14 pts

And this is the problem with the Suns, because if they can just be anything close away from home to what they are at home, they’re a top-six team. Even when you include away games, they’re No.3 in the AFL for average scores from turnover (54 pts), behind only Sydney and Carlton. Wil Powell continues the trend of the Suns having at least one very underrated defender, rated elite at his position for intercept marks and intercept possessions, plus above average for metre gained, joining the always-ignored Sam Collins who is the No.1-ranked key defender in the AFL Player Ratings. And yet they get on a plane and then they stink! The Giants weren’t that impressive against Richmond, actually losing on expected score, so maybe if the Suns can just act like a normal footy team they could pull the upset and launch into the thick of the finals race. Losing isn’t a total disaster since they have easier away games left, but they’re running out of time.

This week: GWS Giants at ENGIE Stadium, Saturday 1:45pm

13. COLLINGWOOD (8-7-2, 102.9%)

Last week: Ranked 9th, lost to Geelong by 20 pts

There are moments in games where they look like themselves; the handball game leaving opposing defences flat-footed and lost, the Magpies’ stars cutting through them with ease on route to a score. But it’s only moments, and the problem with their somewhat-risky game style is that when it doesn’t work, they’re basically doing nothing right. Their territory game is totally gone (17th for inside 50s since Round 12), they’re letting teams chip the ball around at will (-183 for contested marks in their past four games) which negates the pressure game, and the pressure isn’t even there anyway. Add in Nick Daicos getting gaudy disposal numbers but going poorly by foot, with kicking efficiencies of 58%, 30% and 54% over their three consecutive losses, and this team just doesn’t look right. Saturday is effectively an elimination final.

This week: Hawthorn at the MCG, Saturday 4:35pm

14. ADELAIDE CROWS (6-10-1, 105%)

Last week: Ranked 15th, def St Kilda by 32 pts

This week: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, Friday 7:40pm

15. ST KILDA (6-11, 91.1%)

Last week: Ranked 14th, lost to Adelaide by 32 pts

This week: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:45pm

As expected the Crows were too good at home in the battle of also-rans, with both sides effectively mathematically eliminated from the finals race, since neither can reach 13 wins from here. Not that anyone was considering them in the race. The Saints had their weekend to get excited about the future when they beat Sydney, so now Adelaide gets theirs – and with debutant Hugh Bond looking like a solid late draft find, and Riley Thilthorpe reminding everyone how important his absence has been, there’s a chance they can create some optimism heading into an important off-season and the 2025 campaign.

16. RICHMOND (2-15, 63.2%)

Last week: Ranked 17th, lost to GWS by 24 pts

This week: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:30pm

17. NORTH MELBOURNE (2-15, 64.3%)

Last week: Ranked 16th, lost to Sydney by 79 pts

This week: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 4:40pm

18. WEST COAST EAGLES (3-14, 70.3%)

Last week: Ranked 18th, lost to Brisbane by 13 pts

This week: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 1:45pm

You could put this trio in any order and we would accept your argument. We just thought the Tigers were a bit more impressive against the Giants, in a game they actually won on expected score, while the Roos were unsurprisingly blown out against Sydney, and the Eagles showed a bit against Brisbane. To be fair they had the emotional boost of Adam Simpson’s exit, and have otherwise been the worst of this trio over the last month. The wooden spoon is still up for grabs, with results in Round 21 (Eagles-Suns and Tigers-Roos) and Round 22 (Roos-Eagles and Tigers-Saints) likely to decide things.