‘Alarm bells’ ring for powerhouse pair with loser facing shock slide… all the way out of finals

Friday night, ensconced in cold, unforgiving winter. Finals seeds are for the taking as 90,000 prepare to flood the home of football.

It’s a fitting stage for this pivotal period of the AFL season.

A defining point in both clubs’ campaigns as Collingwood and Essendon’s form teeters.

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Before their draw in Round 7, Collingwood had won its past four matches against Essendon. The Magpies have also won four of the past five return fixtures (non-ANZAC Day games) against the Bombers.

The cavalry is arriving for Craig McRae’s Pies, but they are still leaving plenty out on the field, while Brad Scott’s Dons hit a Geelong-shaped wall as their top-four credentials suddenly lose legitimacy.

With eight fixtures remaining on the home-and-away schedule, both sides have their own issues as a blockbuster sequel to ANZAC Day’s frenetic draw awaits.

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Despite overturning a 32-point deficit in a frantic final quarter, the Magpies dropped the ball against Gold Coast last Saturday — regressing on a weekend when their finals-contending counterparts took steps forward.

In particular, Collingwood’s presumptuous defensive attitude at stoppages and in transition was laid bare, with its well-known desire to outnumber at contest coming back to bite hard in instances where it couldn’t win the ball at the source.

“There’s an edginess around Collingwood now coming out of Craig McRae; there is a sense of frustration because, clearly, they’re not playing how they want to play,” Montagna told Fox Footy’s AFL 360 on Wednesday night.

“From my point of view, it’s the defensive aspect of their game. They’ve conceded 100 points in three of their last four games — that isn’t going to get it done in finals.

“Obviously, points against has been an issue, they’re not winning the ball back through the midfield, they’re not winning contested ball (particularly through the midfield), they’re allowing the opposition to move the ball from one end of the field to the other, and that is putting their defence under pressure.”

Since Round 10, the Magpies have ranked 13th for points against, 17th for midfield intercepts, 14th for contested possessions differential, 12th for opposition defensive-50-to-forward-50 transition, and 17th for inside 50s against.

“I want to put (the blame) fairly and squarely on the Collingwood midfield, because they’re the ones that I don’t think are getting it done defensively, and I think they’re playing a little bit of lucky dip footy,” Montagna added.

“There’s a little bit too much of ‘we’ll go our way, you go your way, and we’ll see who wins the footy.’ They’re just taking liberties at the moment — they’ve got time to correct it — but I think this is what McRae’s seen, and why he’s getting frustrated.”

Over the past five weeks, Collingwood has allowed the fifth-most stoppage clearances — however, without Jordan De Goey, Tom Mitchell and Scott Pendlebury for the vast majority of recent fixtures, the Pies have been forced to cope with less.

Four-time Hawthorn premiership player Jordan Lewis spoke of the simmering tension at Olympic Park.

“There’s certainly frustration within the football club,” he told AFL 360.

“It’s funny, because last year they just rode this wave. They were in (close-game situations) a lot, they won, and they were quite happy to sit in that space.

“But you can just sense there’s a frustration — ‘why can’t we do that more? The last five, 10 minutes of games, why can’t we do that earlier or do that more?’

“I think there’s a secondary part to that. Because they’ve done it so much, sides have now had time to go to work on what they do and when they do it. Maybe we are seeing that the other teams — (that were) frightened when they played such an offensive brand of football — maybe that is coming to an end.

“Their run home is as tough as anyone’s run home, starting this Friday night against Essendon. Their last four games this season are against some serious opposition.

“So, the next four weeks will decide, I think, whether they play finals or not. Because the last four games of the season are 50-50 if not (going in) not favourites.”

The matches Lewis refers to come against Carlton (MCG; Round 21), Sydney (SCG; Round 22), Brisbane (MCG; Round 23) and Melbourne (MCG; Round 24) — nothing to be pencilled in there; not even the desperate Dees during what promises to be a finals-defining final weekend.

Asked if he thought the Pies would play finals, Lewis concluded: “I think they might just miss out.”

In the month leading up to those final four games, apart from the Bombers, the Magpies will meet Geelong (Round 18), Hawthorn (Round 19) and Richmond (Round 20) at the MCG.

They will need skipper Darcy Moore to be at his best, with McRae midweek conceding the premiership and All-Australian defender is “not playing at a level where he has”.

And, pitted against the Dons on a crucial night in the context of their season, McRae will blood yet another club debutant in mid-season draftee Ned Long — who played five games with Hawthorn before being delisted at the end of last season.

It’s a brave exercise backing the downfall of these Pies — who still emanate a pretty bloody good ‘aura’ as long as Nick Daicos is still healthy and roaming.

Sure, they lost that close one to the Suns — who happen to be a different force at home — but it’d take a gutsy punter to go against McRae’s men late in a fourth quarter.

WILL DONS SILENCE ‘ALARM BELLS’ — OR ARE THEY SET TO BLARE LOUDER?

Last year, entering their bye, the Bombers were 8-5 only to finish 11-12 after losing seven of their final 10 games to miss finals.

Looking to avoid a similar fate in 2024, Essendon is 1-1 after its bye — with that win coming against the lowly Eagles.

Scott’s brigade, notwithstanding controversial umpiring decisions, was soundly beaten his brother’s Cats last Saturday.

Over the past five weeks, Essendon has allowed the fourth-most intercepts per game, the fifth-most points from turnover, the fifth-most groundball gets, and the third-most points from centre-bounce situations.

Three-time Richmond premiership forward Jack Riewoldt spoke of his “alarm bells” regarding the Bombers as they embark on the final stretch of their regular season.

“You speak about their next four weeks — Essendon, at the moment, is sitting in this limbo phase where it is so important to where they are (with) their identity,” Riewoldt told Fox Footy’s AFL 360.

“They’ve started well, but if you dig a little deeper, they haven’t beaten a top-eight side. Them and North Melbourne are the only two sides this year that haven’t beaten someone currently in the top eight — that’s alarm bells, for mine.

“They’ve got a relatively good run home, but I am worried about where Essendon do sit.”

While Riewoldt is factually correct as at Round 16, the Dons were a single score away from toppling the Pies on ANZAC Day, while their Round 9 win over GWS came when the Giants sat fifth on the ladder.

In any case, the validity of the point stands; they haven’t trumped enough quality opponents this season.

“Now, potentially, 2024 isn’t Essendon’s year,” Riewoldt continued. “Maybe there is a bit of foresight to 2025, 2026, with some more additions into that group and some younger players that are good players that could potentially become great.

“Maybe they can’t win it this year, but they need to get to the finals to dispel the myth, the curse. (But) I don’t think Essendon will play finals — I reckon there’s a couple of sides outside the eight that might sneak in.”

While Riewoldt called the Dons’ remaining draw “relatively good”, to call Essendon’s run home ‘easy’ would be a misnomer.

Despite the fact that seven of their final eight fixtures are at either the MCG or Marvel Stadium, the Bombers’ opponents are formidable — especially in the final month of their season.

From Rounds 21-24, they come up against Fremantle, Gold Coast, Sydney and Brisbane to close their home-and-away account. Talk about season-defining.

Plus, they have a lowly 9-1-18 (32 per cent) record at the ‘G since the start of the 2020 season, so they’re far from winning guarantees at the colosseum.

With a black-and-white debutant on the other side of the ledger, one-gamer Nate Caddy will return to Scott’s line-up on Friday night to provide a timely injection of attacking flair.

Over the past five weeks of football, Collingwood and Essendon have ranked at or below AFL average in two of the game’s critical metrics — points-from-turnover differential and points-from-stoppage differential.

For reference, Carlton’s points-from-turnover differential (+36.0) is the best in the league in that period, while the Pies’ (+1.4) and Bombers’ (-6.2) output has left plenty to be desired as a crucial stretch of the season commences.

These sides go into Friday night in average form. And it could well be an average spectacle at the ‘G, but with both sides desperate to rebound from suspect defeats, the winner will be leaving feeling much better about their run-home prospects.