MLB Power Rankings: Guardians goin’ up, Braves reclaim the throne; plus standout stats

By Grant Brisbee, Andy McCullough and Stephen J. Nesbitt

 

Every week,​ we​ ask a selected group of our baseball​ writers​ — local and national —  to rank the teams from first to worst. Here are the collective results.

Welcome to this week’s edition of The Athletic’s MLB Power Rankings, where we answer the questions on your mind. Which team currently looks like the best in baseball? How close are the Phillies to catching the Braves? How far should the Dodgers drop after a tough homestand? Is there a Pacific Coast League team that sneaks into the top 30 and pushes the White Sox to 31st place?

This week, we’re hunting for statistics that might mean more than your typical April numbers and using them to describe what each team is going for. There will likely be a bunch of happy, fun stats at the top, and then it will descend into madness. Remember that ophthalmologists strongly recommend that you don’t stare at the White Sox blurb without special glasses.

All stats through Monday morning.

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Record: 15-6
Last Power Ranking: T-2

Notable stat: The lineup’s collective .828 OPS

Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo posted an .829 OPS last season. Rangers second baseman Marcus Semien finished the year with an .826 OPS. Can you imagine a lineup stocked with carbon copies of Nimmo and Semien? That’s what the Braves have. The offense just does not quit. This past weekend, it was catcher Travis d’Arnaud’s turn to carry the group with a three-homer barrage against Texas. The lineup’s depth has allowed the club to keep chugging along despite Spencer Strider’s season-ending elbow surgery and catcher Sean Murphy’s extended absence with a strained oblique muscle. — Andy McCullough

Record: 15-8
Last Power Ranking: 1

Notable stat: Aaron Judge’s .690 OPS against fastballs

As The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner noted, Judge had destroyed heaters in the past. He tended to crush fastballs in the strike zone throughout his career. Thus far, in 2024, he hasn’t been able to catch up. The lack of success is the key to his slow start because otherwise, Judge has been himself. His eye is keen, and he tends not to chase pitches outside the zone — he entered Monday with a .320 on-base percentage despite batting .183. When he makes contact, he strikes the ball with force. But he hasn’t been able to cover fastballs in the zone, which is a bit worrisome. — McCullough

Record: 15-7
Last Power Ranking: 4

Notable stat: Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg’s combined 34 RBIs

On any other club, players like Cowser and Westburg would be considered potential saviors. Both are former first-round picks with significant potential. On the Orioles, they are almost afterthoughts. Such is the plight — if you want to call it that — of sharing a roster with wunderkinder like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Jackson Holliday. While Holliday has floundered since being called up, Cowser and Westburg have supplied firepower to the lineup. The Orioles lead the American League in slugging, and the duo of Cowser and Westburg are part of the reason. — McCullough

Record: 13-11
Last Power Ranking: T-2

Notable stat: 34.7%, the lowest ground-ball percentage in baseball

Ground balls stink. Line drives rule. So, the Dodgers have built a roster that hits the ball hard. This sabermetrics stuff is easy.

They don’t just have the lowest ground-ball percentage, either; they’re almost five percentage points lower than the second-best team in baseball. Combine this with the highest line-drive rate in baseball, and you have the, well, Dodgers. They’re hitting the heck out of the ol’ horsehide. — Grant Brisbee

Record: 15-8
Last Power Ranking: 6

Notable stat: Six innings per start from the rotation

When Aaron Nola is the relative weak spot of your starting rotation, you’re in a good place. The Phillies’ starters have been gobbling up outs and piling up innings in the early going. Ranger Suárez spun a shutout against the Rockies last week. Zack Wheeler carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the White Sox. (If you’re going to face lower-tier competition, you might as well give your bullpen some rest.) Spencer Turnbull looks like an incredible bargain on a $2 million deal. The rotation has provided stability as the offense begins to click into gear. — McCullough

Record: 14-7
Last Power Ranking: 7

Notable stat: .789 team OPS

We joked a while ago that the Brewers’ lineup was up there with the Braves and Dodgers, only faster. We regret the error — they’d stomp the Dodgers. The Brewers are second in the majors in batting average (.275), on-base percentage (.348) and third in slugging percentage (.441). The Brew Crew, for now, is cleaning up without Christian Yelich, who started hot this season before suffering a lower back strain. Opposing pitchers are finding that even if they get past William Contreras and Willy Adames, they’re liable to be smacked around by Nos. 7, 8 and 9 hitters Blake Perkins, Brice Turang, and Jackson Chourio. — Stephen J. Nesbitt

Record: 12-12
Last Power Ranking: 5

Notable stat: Randy Arozarena and Yandy Díaz’s collective .191 batting average

The Rays are scuffling. Brandon Lowe and Josh Lowe are both on the shelf. Taylor Walls is still rehabbing from hip surgery. The American League East does not allow much room to breathe. So Tampa Bay entered Monday in last place despite a winning record. Such is life in the East. For the Rays, there is an easy solution to their offensive woes: Their two best hitters need to play as they usually do. Arozarena has been walking less and striking out more than usual in the early going. Díaz has been making less hard contact than normal. Neither trend can continue if the Rays intend to contend. — McCullough

Record: 16-6
Last Power Ranking: 17

Notable stat: Four shutouts thrown

Listen, I wanted to call out the Guardians’ top-five slugging percentage, given the team’s reputation for having a bunch of Punch-and-Judy hitters around José Ramírez in the lineup. (Josh Naylor is raking.) But we’ve got to give credit to this pitching staff. They’re without Shane Bieber, Gavin Williams and a handful of relievers. Their best healthy starter has a 4.44 ERA, and two others have 5s. But the Guards are getting it done. Emmanuel Clase, Hunter Gaddis (?) and Tim Herrin (??) are untouchable out of the pen. I don’t know how they’re doing this, and I don’t know if they can keep it up. But it’s gonna be a good ride. — Nesbitt

Record: 13-9
Last Power Ranking: 10

Notable stat: Shota Imanaga and Javier Assad’s combined 1.48 ERA

The Cubs started the season with starter Jameson Taillon on the injured list. Ace Justin Steele joined him there after an Opening Day hamstring injury. Chicago needed someone to step up in the rotation, and two have. Imanaga is 3-0 with an 0.84 ERA and a 0.750 WHIP. Assad is 2-0 with a 2.11 ERA and 1.031 WHIP. Both have pitched 21 1/3 innings, with 21 strikeouts and 14 hits allowed. The Cubs already have had eight pitchers make starts, and Kyle Hendricks has gotten rocked. Stability from Imanaga and Assad has saved the Cubbies. Taillon is back in the rotation, and Steele shouldn’t be far behind. — Nesbitt

Record: 11-13
Last Power Ranking: 9

Notable stat: Corbin Carroll’s 84-mph average exit velocity

Last season’s Rookie of the Year is scuffling mightily, and his exit velocity is a huge reason why. Not only did he lose more of last year’s velocity than almost any other batter this season, but he’s close to the bottom of the league. If he doesn’t get his numbers up in this category, he will have one of the worst seasons by exit velocity in the Statcast Era.

Youth is on his side, so it’s not time to panic yet. He sure looks like a different player so far this season, though. — Brisbee

Record: 12-11
Last Power Ranking: 8

Notable stat: 10 Outs Above Average (t-1st in baseball)

According to Wins Above Average, the Rangers have the 20th-best pitching staff in baseball. According to FIP, the Rangers have the fourth-worst pitching staff in the majors. So, how are they in first place in the AL West as of this writing?

They can pick it. Simple as that. They’re one of the fastest teams in baseball, and their infield defense was a huge part of their championship run. Death to flying things and death to rolling things. That’s the Rangers Way, and it’s showing up in the team’s ERA. — Brisbee

Record: 13-10
Last Power Ranking: 13

Notable stat: Yimi García’s 0.29 WHIP

Toronto opened the season with a short-handed bullpen, as closer Jordan Romano and setup man Erik Swanson dealt with injuries. García, a hard-throwing right-handed veteran, helped fill the void. He picked up two saves in the process. With both Romano and Swanson back, the Blue Jays relief corps looks formidable. Despite all the hype elicited by the team’s offense, the pitching staff figures to be the strength of this club, and its best hope for surviving the rough-and-tumble American League East. — McCullough

Record: 11-11
Last Power Ranking: 20

Notable stat: Worst percentage of productive outs in baseball: (15.1 percent)

Every fan thinks their team is the worst at making productive outs (advancing a runner with no outs, driving in a baserunner with the second out of the inning), but that’s just confirmation bias. The average team fails more than 70 percent of the time in those situations, so it’s unlikely that your team actually is the worst.

Not so fast, Mariners. You really are the worst. They have four sacrifice flies this season, just one more than Ketel Marte. The team is built around pitching, to be sure, but they’ll need to convert opportunities like this if they want to get back to the postseason. — Brisbee

Record: 12-10
Last Power Ranking: 12

Notable stat: Spelly De La Steer’s .999 OPS

Though losing Matt McLain and TJ Friedl left the Reds shorthanded, it did not diminish their watchability. They’ve weathered injury and illness to sit in the top half of the power rankings table, thanks in large part to Spencer Steer and Elly De La Cruz, whose combined powers make for an amusing name and OPS. It’s also amusing to mix and match their season to pretend they’re one player.

Steer before April 7: .448/.529/.897, 3 HR, 12 RBIs

De La Cruz since April 7: .359/.479/.846, 6 HR, 12 RBIs

Look at that! Spelly for MVP!

Steer and De La Cruz entered this week with 33 combined RBIs, so take that, Andy, who thought 34 made the O’s Westburg and Cowser so cool. — Nesbitt

Record: 13-10
Last Power Ranking: 19

Notable stat: 3.18 runs allowed per game

Go ahead and act all nonchalant that, after allowing 5.30 runs per game last year, the Royals are allowing the fewest runs in the majors this season. Like you saw this coming. Like you knew when the Cole Ragans trade went down that the organization’s pitching problems had just gone out the window. Well, I’ll admit, it has surprised me. The Royals have the third-best rotation ERA in the majors, at 2.94. If the arms hold up and the heart of the lineup — Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez — keeps humming, the Royals will give their fans a whole lot to look forward to this summer. — Nesbitt

Record: 13-12
Last Power Ranking: 11

Notable stat: Most double plays in baseball (24)

The Padres aren’t an especially slow team, which makes this stat a little curious. It’s not all Manny Machados and Luis Campusanos lumbering around out there. Even Jake Cronenworth is hitting into plenty of double plays.

While this doesn’t have to be a bad thing — it takes runners on base to hit into double plays — giving away two outs for the price of one has been part of what’s keeping them from getting to that next tier of production, where the Braves reside. The Padres have the power and the patience to be an elite offensive team. They just have to get out of their own way first. — Brisbee

Record: 13-10
Last Power Ranking: 16

Notable stat: Kutter Crawford’s 0.66 ERA

The Red Sox rebounded from an ugly homestand to sweep the Pirates this weekend. On Saturday, Crawford turned in another excellent performance, with six innings of one-run baseball. Crawford has permitted runs in only two of his five outings this season. He has increased his slider usage and cut back on his curveball, which has aided him thus far. He’s bound to experience some regression, but it’s hard to argue with the results for now. — McCullough

Record: 12-10
Last Power Ranking: 23

Notable stat: Francisco Alvarez’s six-to-eight-week injury timetable

A successful trip to Los Angeles was spoiled when Alvarez, the Mets’ 22-year-old catcher, suffered a torn thumb ligament at Dodger Stadium. Alvarez will likely miss two months as he recovers from surgery. The development of Alvarez is crucial for the Mets as new president of baseball operations David Stearns attempts to build a more sustainable winner. The team had won eight of 10 games heading into Monday’s contest in San Francisco. — McCullough

Record: 7-16
Last Power Ranking: 14

Notable stat: Highest WHIP (1.507) in the American League

It’s entirely possible that the Astros are having a worse start relative to expectations than any team over the past 20 seasons. Not just any Astros team, but any team at all. The lineup is hitting about as well as expected — they’re second in the AL in both OPS and OPS+ — but their pitching has been an absolute slog. The Astros lead the AL in walks and hits allowed, which is a noxious cocktail.

A lot of this has to do with Cristian Javier and Framber Valdez being on the IL, along with Justin Verlander just coming back, but a bigger, more structural problem is that the Astros aren’t striking out opponents like other teams are. That’s combined with a below-average defensive infield according to the early metrics, to create chaos, and it doesn’t have to go away soon. — Brisbee

Record: 13-10
Last Power Ranking: 20

Notable stat: The bullpen’s 1.65 ERA

Tigers pitchers lead the majors in batting average against (.208) and are second in ERA (2.94) and WHIP (1.11), but let’s zoom in on the bullpen. That ERA is the best among MLB bullpens by a country mile. Here are their relievers, listed from worst ERA to best: Andrew Chafin 2.08, Alex Faedo 1.98, Will Vest 1.80, Shelby Miller 1.74, Tyler Holton 1.50, Alex Lange 1.23, Joey Wentz 0.96 and Jason Foley 0.00. Wait, why isn’t the Tigers bullpen’s ERA even better than 1.65?

Ah, that’s right. Utility guy Zach McKinstry has a 54.00 ERA. — Nesbitt

Record: 11-13
Last Power Ranking: 24

Notable stat: Percentage of inherited runners that are allowed to score: 54 percent (highest in baseball)

When Giants relievers come into a game to put out a fire, they start acting like a playful bunch of male models. They’re right around the league average when it comes to allowing baserunners and home runs, but they have the second-worst bullpen ERA in baseball. Their timing is impeccable, and not in a good way.

The good news is that this is the sort of thing that regresses to the mean over a long, long baseball season. The bad news is that the season is already 14 percent over, and the Giants have spent most of it frittering away leads. — Brisbee

Record: 8-13
Last Power Ranking: 18

Notable stat: .195 team batting average

It’s hard to rival the White Sox for futility in any hitting category right now. Really hard. But the Twins are doing their darndest. With Carlos Correa, Max Kepler and Royce Lewis on the injured list and Matt Wallner demoted to the minors, the lineup bears little resemblance to the fearsome one we saw last fall when the Twins won the AL Central. Of the 13 position players currently on the Twins roster, more than half are batting below the Mendoza Line, and only three (Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Austin Martin) are above .250. — Nesbitt

Record: 12-11
Last Power Ranking: 14

Notable stat: Oneil Cruz’s 40.2 percent strikeout rate

When you follow a 9-2 start with a 2-9 stretch, you come out feeling much worse than .500. Some of what ails the Pirates, like All-Star closer David Bednar’s early-season struggles (the Pirates have blown seven saves, tied with the Marlins for most in MLB), will likely sort itself out in time. But Cruz’s cold bat and waning confidence in the early going, after missing almost all of last season with a fractured fibula, warrant concern. The 6-foot-7 shortstop showed an improved strikeout rate and swing decisions in a tiny sample last season, but those numbers are as bad as ever in a slightly larger sample so far this season. — Nesbitt

Record: 10-13
Last Power Ranking: 22

Notable stat: 3.45 runs per game

As of Monday, the Cardinals had scored three runs in a game nine times, and any other run total no more than twice. They’re testing a theory that scoring precisely three runs is the most efficient way to win in today’s game. They tried the 3-3-3 scoring strategy against the Phillies and almost won that series, losing in extras in one game and by one run in another because, unfortunately, winning would have required a fourth run. They went 3-3-3 against the A’s and took two of three. Know how the Cards could have won that series that the Brewers swept last weekend? Three runs each game. That’s right, people. Open your eyes.

The Cards are 0-6 when scoring fewer than three runs, and 5-1 when scoring more than three runs. Three really does seem like a sweet spot. — Nesbitt

Record: 10-11
Last Power Ranking: 27

Notable stat: CJ Abrams’ .676 slugging percentage

Fun fact: Abrams, the centerpiece of San Diego’s offer for Juan Soto in 2022, entered Monday’s games slugging nearly 100 points better than Soto was for the Yankees. And Soto has been a beast for the Yankees. In D.C., though, Abrams has tapped into the power that made him a top-10 prospect for the Padres heading into 2022. Abrams is a free swinger, which could cause issues as the season progresses. But when he does make contact, as he has done often in April, he has the brawn to hit the ball over the fence and the speed to turn doubles into triples. At 23, he looks like a star. — McCullough

Record: 9-14
Last Power Ranking: 25

Notable stat: Mike Trout’s 19.8-percent strikeout rate

The great players don’t always strike out more as they get older. Hank Aaron’s strikeout rate was lower when he was 41 than it was when he was 27. However, most of them start striking out more, from Willie Mays to Albert Pujols, and Trout was trending in that direction, ranking 248th in strikeout rate out of 293 players with at least 300 plate appearances last season. It’s still possible to be a productive player while striking out more than your peers, but it sure is a lot harder to do.

Trout has adjusted so far this season, which helps explain the power surge. He’s closer to the middle of the pack in strikeouts, which is where he was in his very best seasons. While it’s still early, strikeout rate is one of the stats that stabilizes the quickest. Welcome back, Hall of Fame Trout. — Brisbee

Record: 9-14
Last Power Ranking: 26

Notable stat: 45%, the lowest contact percentage in baseball 

The A’s are 30th out of 30 teams in …

• Contact rate on pitches in the strike zone
• Contact rate on pitches out of the strike zone
• Contract rate in general

This doesn’t mean that they’re leading baseball in strikeouts, though. They have plenty, but the Dodgers have even more as of this writing. But the Dodgers are using their swing-and-miss profile to swing hard and hit line drives when they do run into one, while the A’s are simply swinging and missing. They’re not making good, hard contact when they do hit the ball, so it’s the worst of both worlds. — Brisbee

Record: 6-18
Last Power Ranking: 28

Notable stat: Max Meyer’s zero innings in 2023

There aren’t many reasons to watch the Marlins this season. The offense is sluggish. Injuries have weakened the pitching staff. Meyer, a right-handed pitcher chosen with the third overall pick in the 2020 draft, provided a reason for hope in three strong starts, giving up four earned runs in 17 innings. Yet the Marlins still optioned him to the minors in hopes of keeping his innings count down in 2024. Meyer did not pitch last season as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. He will pitch once a week for Triple-A Jacksonville. So there is that. — McCullough

Record: 5-18
Last Power Ranking: 29

Notable stat: 3.7 runs per game at Coors Field

You know about the Coors Effect, where hitters get used to lifeless breaking balls and fastball movement in Denver’s Coors Field, only to go on the road and get dominated when they see normal pitches. This, however, is a new development. The Rockies aren’t just forgetting how to score on the road; they can’t score at all. They’ve scored three runs or fewer in five straight home games, which ties an all-time franchise record. They haven’t hit a home run in three straight home games, with their own fans doing their part to keep it that way.

Mariners’ broadcasters Aaron Goldsmith and Mike Blowers were quite convinced the review of this play wouldn’t go this way. “This ballgame is over. There’s no case to be made for the fan interfering with Dylan, is there?” “I don’t think so.” pic.twitter.com/OpXww3DThI

— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) April 21, 2024

There have been several dreadful Rockies teams since the team came into the league, but you could almost always count on them to scare the bejeebers out of their opponents when they came to Coors Field. This is an entirely new dynamic, and if the Rockies don’t fix it soon, they’ll contribute greatly to the field of stinkology. A Rockies team that can’t even hit at home? What will science think of next? — Brisbee

Record: 3-19
Last Power Ranking: 30

Notable stat: Almost all of them are offensive

There’s a thread on Reddit’s White Sox community titled: Worst Chicago White Sox Ever? The original poster mentioned Jeff Keppinger (.600 OPS in 2013). Someone else said, “Nomar Mazara lmao” (.589 OPS in 2020). And it’s a mercy that thread dropped two years ago because the 2024 White Sox have a .552 team OPS. They are off to the worst start in franchise history and could be headed for big-league history. They average 2.14 runs scored per game and 5.52 runs allowed. As of Monday, Atlanta’s Marcell Ozuna is a two-homer day from tying the White Sox’s 11 homers this season. The White Sox have a .188/.264/.288 slash line and .552 OPS. The closest comp I can find is 1975 John Stearns. A whole team of Stearnses. — Nesbitt

(Top photo of Ramón Laureano, Steven Kwan and Tyler Freeman: Jason Miller / Getty Images)