Baseball is hard. Predicting it is even harder. But why let that pesky reality stand in the way of a fun exercise? Leading up to Opening Day, we asked our writers for their bold predictions, and they came through.
We went through this process last year, too. It turns out we had a few pretty good prognosticators in the house, though they proved to be the exception. The results:
❌ Misses (18):
Red Sox,
White Sox,
Guardians,
Rockies,
Astros,
Royals,
Angels,
Dodgers,
Marlins,
Brewers,
Yankees,
Athletics,
Padres,
Giants,
Cardinals,
Rangers,
Blue Jays
✅ Hits (7):
Diamondbacks,
Braves,
Orioles,
Reds,
Tigers,
Phillies,
Pirates,
Mariners
🔮 Nostradamus (5):
Cubs,
Twins,
Nationals,
Mets,
Rays
Like we said, predicting baseball is hard.
But a new season brings new hope and new possibilities. Our writers did not shy away from being bold, with extra credit handed out for awards predictions. The bolder the better, we say. Now let’s begin.
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This year’s bold prediction: A year after becoming the first Diamondbacks player to win a Rookie of the Year award, Corbin Carroll becomes the first Diamondback to win the MVP — and the first to have a 30/30 season. — Tyler Kepner
Boldness level: 🔥🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: The Diamondbacks lead the majors in steals in 2023.
Outcome: Well, they came close, finishing second to the Runnin’ Reds of Cincinnati. However, the Snakes spent the postseason practicing their 4×100 relays, and they’re a decent bet to do so again in 2024.
Grade: ✅
This year’s bold prediction: The Braves’ offense won’t be as prolific as it was in 2023, but their pitching will be better. The net result will be a third consecutive 100-win season and seventh straight NL East title, followed by a return to the NLCS for the first time since 2021 and a rematch with the Dodgers. The Braves win the pennant, then win a second World Series title in a four-year span. — David O’Brien
Boldness level: 🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: The Braves win a sixth consecutive NL East title despite an extremely difficult division that features the record-setting payroll of the Mets (coming off a 101-win season) and big additions by the pennant-winning Phillies.
Outcome: Good: 104 wins. Not so good: what happened after winning the division.
Grade: ✅
This year’s bold prediction: There’s so much Orioles hullabaloo focused on the quality (and quantity) of their young position players, you might not have noticed all the ace pitchers going down with injuries across the league. So, while you’re wondering whether Jackson Holliday will be called up in time to win Rookie of the Year, Corbin Burnes is going to steal the show by winning his second Cy Young just in time to hit the free-agent market this winter. And that always works out, right Blake Snell? — Chad Jennings
Boldness level: 🔥🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: An Oriole will win AL Rookie of the Year for the first time since Gregg Olson in 1989.
Outcome: Sure, he was the favorite all along, but Gunnar Henderson fulfilled his destiny.
Grade: ✅
This year’s bold prediction: If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over, then here we are. Everyone is predicting the Red Sox to finish last in the division for what would be a third straight season. Is it bold enough (perhaps a little crazy?) if we make the same prediction that they’ll somehow have enough here to snag a wild-card berth? — Jen McCaffrey
Boldness level: 🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: Outperforming modest expectations, the Red Sox secure a wild-card berth to make the playoffs for only the second time since winning the World Series in 2018.
Outcome: The Red Sox went full throttle into last place.
Grade: ❌
This year’s bold prediction: Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins will make some of the biggest moves at the trade deadline, using one of the game’s top farm systems to acquire Shane Bieber and Kenley Jansen and try to win the National League’s blah division. — Patrick Mooney
Boldness level: 🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: Cody Bellinger will return to form — probably not 2019 form, but he’ll put up his best numbers since that MVP season.
Outcome: Bellinger returned to form — not 2019 form, but he put up his best numbers since that MVP season — and Sahadev Sharma celebrated his bold call by expensing more kombucha than any other baseball writer in America.
Grade: 🔮
This year’s bold prediction: The White Sox finish ahead of expectations and win a resounding 65 games. Manager Pedro Grifol gets a contract extension after the team finishes three consecutive games without an error. GM Chris Getz signs Zack Grienke in May to bolster the team’s ex-Royals vibe, but passes on bringing back Andy Sisco and Mike MacDougal. — Jon Greenberg
Boldness level: 🔥🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: The White Sox should win their division.
Outcome: It took 87 victories to win the AL Central — and the Pale Hose missed by just 26 games.
Grade: ❌
This year’s bold prediction: Rhett Lowder starts a playoff game for the Reds. Lowder, last year’s first-round pick, should be in the big leagues sooner rather than later and it’s not as if the Reds, at this point, have a roster full of no-doubt Game 1 starters. — C. Trent Rosecrans
Boldness level: 🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: “I’m not saying they’re a playoff team and I’m not saying they contend for a spot or anything,” Rosecrans wrote. “It’s just that I think they finish fourth, ahead of the Pirates.”
Outcome: The Reds finished third, ahead of the Pirates, though they did contend for a spot. But we hear Kirk Herbstreit nailed it.
Grade: ✅
This year’s bold prediction: José Ramírez wins the AL batting title. He ranked seventh in the AL with a .282 mark last season, his highest in a full season since 2017, but he ranked in the 96th percentile in expected batting average. He makes a ton of contact, rarely strikes out and if he can harness his chase rate a bit, he can yank fastballs past defenders who can’t shift against him the way they used to. — Zack Meisel
Boldness level: 🔥🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: “So, you want something bold?” Meisel asked, rhetorically. “They certainly have the trade ammunition to acquire the best starting pitcher on the market in July. But let’s go the internal route and say one of their pitching prospects ranked in Keith Law’s Top 50 — either Daniel Espino, Gavin Williams or Tanner Bibee — starts a playoff game. In fact, we’ll go with Williams. And Espino will be in the bullpen.”
Outcome: The Guardians did not need a playoff starter after all. But if they had, rookie of the year runner-up Tanner Bibee would have certainly been in the mix.
Grade: ❌
This year’s bold prediction: The Rockies’ pitching takes a pounding in the punishing NL West, and the team finishes with a 5.86 ERA, an MLB record for the 2000s. — Tyler Kepner
Boldness level: 🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: The Rockies fall out of the top 20 in attendance.
Outcome: The fans here have never been the problem. Attendance finished solidly in the top 20 — ranking 13th in the league at 2.6 million — despite a 103-loss campaign.
Grade: ❌
This year’s bold prediction: Javier Báez will be a platoon player by season’s end. Báez was the second worst qualifying hitter in baseball last season with a 61 wRC+. He was moved down in the Tigers order, and despite talks of an offseason overhaul, Báez struggled at the plate in the spring. The Tigers aren’t going to eat his contract this year, but they won’t tolerate his struggles forever. By season’s end, Báez will only be starting against left-handed pitching. — Cody Stavenhagen
Boldness level: 🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: The Tigers will look to trade Eduardo Rodriguez at this year’s deadline.
Outcome: Indeed, the Tigers looked to trade Rodriguez at the deadline. But what Stavenhagen didn’t predict was that Rodriguez would block the trade.
Grade: ✅
This year’s bold prediction: Yordan Alvarez will become the first player to win MVP while playing the majority of his games at designated hitter. Getting Shohei Ohtani out of the American League — and Alvarez into the second spot of the Astros’ batting order — should create a path to the award. — Chandler Rome
Boldness level: 🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: An Astros starter wins the AL Cy Young for the second season in a row, and this time it’s Cristian Javier.
Outcome: Nope, though a former Astros starter won it in Gerrit Cole.
Grade: ❌
This year’s bold prediction: For the first time in seven years, the Royals will send three players to the All-Star Game: shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino and pitcher Cole Ragans, who will take extra pleasure in returning to Globe Life Field, the home ballpark of his former team. — Zack Meisel
Boldness level: 🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: Pasquantino will rank in the top three among American League first basemen in OPS.
Outcome: Rustin Dodd surely meant Pasquantino would rank in the top three among Royals first baseman in OPS (.747) — which he did. So take that, haters.
Grade: ❌
This year’s bold prediction: Mike Trout will call out Arte Moreno. We saw some budding frustration at the beginning of spring training when Trout said he’d been pushing ownership to acquire high level free agents. Despite being linked to many free agents, the Angels didn’t sign anyone more expensive than Robert Stephenson (3 years, $33 million). They cut payroll by more than $40 million. If the team isn’t in the playoff mix again, Trout might have to speak out more than he has before. — Sam Blum
Boldness level: 🔥🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: “The Angels will have a winning record,” Blum wrote. “I thought about predicting the playoffs. But I don’t want to go overboard.”
Outcome: Boy are we glad Sam did not go overboard.
Grade: ❌
This year’s bold prediction: Mookie Betts will have the highest WAR season of his Dodgers tenure. The bar is high — he was worth 8.3 WAR by both Baseball Reference and FanGraphs a year ago, and he’s in his age-31 season. But he’s coming off an MVP-caliber offensive campaign, and if his glove is able to handle the move to shortstop, the positional adjustment could help him rack up more value. It’s already bold that he’s playing shortstop now. But what if he makes the decision look like a no-brainer? — Fabian Ardaya
Boldness level: 🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: The Dodgers’ starting shortstop in the postseason isn’t currently on their active roster. This isn’t to detract from Miguel Rojas, whose acquisition is all the more important with Gavin Lux out for the year — but the Dodgers will continue to look for upgrades.
Outcome: The Dodgers did trade for Amed Rosario, though Rojas started all three of the Dodgers’ playoff games.
Grade: ❌
This year’s bold prediction: Jake Burger and Jazz Chisholm Jr. become the second Marlins teammates with 35 homers in a season, a mighty feat achieved in 2017 by Giancarlo Stanton (59) and Marcell Ozuna (37). — Stephen J. Nesbitt
Boldness level: 🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: The Marlins won’t be a bottom-10 offense this year.
Outcome: The Marlins’ runs per game (4.3) ranked 25th.
Grade: ❌
This year’s bold prediction: As the club’s new No. 1 pitcher, Freddy Peralta will author the best season by a Brewers starter in recent memory. Reminder: Corbin Burnes won the Cy Young Award in 2021. Another reminder: Brandon Woodruff has been pretty good, too. Yeah, he will top what both have done. — Will Sammon
Boldness level: 🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: William Contreras will hit 30 home runs.
Outcome: Contreras hit 17 bombs.
Grade: ❌
This year’s bold prediction: Sophomore second baseman Edouard Julien will lead the American League’s non-Yankees hitters in walks and finish in the league’s top five for runs scored. — Aaron Gleeman
Boldness level: 🔥🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: This might sound crazy after last year’s mess, but I think a top-five ERA in the AL is within reach.
Outcome: Gleeman absolutely nailed it.
Grade: 🔮
This year’s bold prediction: Francisco Alvarez will be the best catcher in the National League. J.T. Realmuto owned that title for a while, and William Contreras, Sean Murphy and Will Smith provide stout competition. But Alvarez showed long enough flashes of excellence both at and behind the plate last year, as well as an impressive track record of swift improvement through his professional career, to expect another leap in his second season. — Tim Britton
Boldness level: 🔥🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: Francisco Lindor will hit 30-plus home runs. … There are fewer question marks surrounding how he’ll perform in New York, and that feels like a potential prelude to his best season as a Met.
Outcome: Lindor finished with 31 bombs, 31 steals. And by OPS, it was his best season as a Met, just as Britton told you last spring.
Grade: 🔮
This year’s bold prediction: Juan Soto wins the American League MVP, hitting no less than 50 homers. That’s not all. He does the Soto shuffle in an appearance on “Saturday Night Live.” — Brendan Kuty
Boldness level: 🔥🔥🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: Aaron Judge will threaten 70 homers. Too bold? Well, then call me Captain Kirk.
Outcome: Captain Kirk? Nah, Kuty. Grab a red shirt. Though, in fairness, Judge did crush 37 homers despite being limited to just 106 games due to injury.
Grade: ❌
This year’s bold prediction: The A’s break the 70-win threshold. The discourse around the team is deservedly bleak and they still won’t be a good team, but the starting pitching will be better, Mason Miller will have his own Pitching Ninja thread, and a full season of Zack Gelof, Lawrence Butler & Co. will improve the offense over last year’s dismal showing. — Melissa Lockard
Boldness level: 🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: They’ll hit the over on their win-loss total this season. … They may not be good, but they won’t lose 103-plus games.
Outcome: LOL. The A’s lost 112 games. One-hundred twelve.
Grade: ❌
This year’s bold prediction: Trea Turner wins the National League MVP. The $300 million shortstop redeemed his first season with the Phillies by hitting .337/.389/.668 in the final 48 games. The overall picture showed a star who underachieved, and Turner fought pressure to fulfill the expectations that came with a massive deal. With that burden eased, Turner can just be himself — one of the best players in the sport. It’s not audacious to think this is his year. — Matt Gelb
Boldness level: 🔥🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: “Alec Bohm has a breakout season at the plate,” Gelb wrote. “He looked to unlock some more power this spring, and his improved mindset should translate into more success this season.”
Outcome: Excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Bohm established career highs in on-base percentage (.327), slugging (.437) and homers (20).
Grade: ✅
This year’s bold prediction: Mitch Keller will be the pitching staff’s WAR leader, but rookie Jared Jones will have the rotation’s best ERA, 3.93. With sharpness early in the season providing sufficient rotation certainty, the Pirates will wait to call up Paul Skenes until June. Jones will finish seventh in NL Rookie of the Year voting. — Stephen J. Nesbitt
Boldness level: 🔥🔥🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: Top prospect Endy Rodríguez will at least be a part-time starting catcher in Pittsburgh by the end of July.
Outcome: Indeed, Rodríguez earned a July call-up and hit .220 in 57 games. Unfortunately for Rodríguez, an injury in winter ball will cost him the 2024 season.
Grade: ✅
This year’s bold prediction: Michael King becomes the latest player the Padres sign to a contract extension, albeit at a significantly more affordable price than Manny Machado, Yu Darvish, Jake Cronenworth, etc. — Dennis Lin
Boldness level: 🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: The Padres trade for Corbin Burnes.
Outcome: The Padres struggled, held on to their guys at the deadline, missed the playoffs, traded away Juan Soto earlier the winter, and then this spring traded for Dylan Cease.
Grade: ❌
This year’s bold prediction: Jung Hoo Lee hits .314. Technically, he’ll hit .3143322476, (193 for 614) but it’ll be rounded down. This will be good for second in the National League, behind Luis Arraez, and the Giants will start selling windmill hats to take advantage of his nickname, Grandson of the Wind. — Grant Brisbee
Boldness level: 🔥🔥🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: This will be the midseason trade deadline when the Giants finally pull off a blockbuster.
Outcome: If your definition of blockbuster includes “six games of AJ Pollock,” you might want to log off and get some sleep.
Grade: ❌
This year’s bold prediction: The Mariners win the first pennant in franchise history as Logan Gilbert wins the Cy Young Award, Julio Rodríguez wins the MVP and Jerry Dipoto wins the trading deadline by pulling off his biggest acquisition yet: Juan Soto. — Tyler Kepner
Boldness level: 🔥🔥🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: Rodríguez will join the 30-30 club.
Outcome: Though not the boldest prediction given J-Rod’s talent and skillset, 32 homers and 37 steals is nonetheless impressive.
Grade: ✅
This year’s bold prediction: After the most disappointing season of his career, Nolan Arenado goes full revenge tour and finishes top-three in NL MVP voting. Last year was the first full-season since 2014 that Arenado did not record at least 30 homers and 100 RBI. It also ended his streak of 10 consecutive Gold Gloves — he’d won the award every year since he debuted. Someone has to propel the Cardinals out of last year’s cellar. It’s going to be Arenado. — Katie Woo
Boldness level: 🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: Perhaps they’ll make a blockbuster trade and acquire a true No. 1 starting pitcher before the deadline.
Outcome: By the deadline, the Cardinals were already on their way to their first last-place divisional finish since 1990.
Grade: ❌
This year’s bold prediction: Low and behold — or should that be Lowe and behold — the Rays have an offense, too! Well known for their ability to develop pitchers, the Rays actually are going to hit themselves into contention in the first half. Second baseman Brandon Lowe is healthy again, right fielder Josh Lowe is coming off a strong second half, and the Rays will have a top-five offense to keep themselves afloat until some of their injured arms return in time to make a playoff run down the stretch. — Chad Jennings
Boldness level: 🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: “Isaac Paredes will be a top-10 third baseman in the league in 2023,” Eno Sarris wrote. “If he has any sort of better luck on balls in play, he could have a really big season, and the Rays could use one more everyday player, so that they can platoon more elsewhere.”
Outcome: The BABIP gods smiled down upon Paredes (.195 in 2022 to .257 in 2023), who finished in the Top 10 amongst third basemen in fWAR. Just more proof that when he’s not prancing around in his underpants with Hall of Famers, that Sarris guy knows what he’s doing.
Grade: 🔮
This year’s bold prediction: Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter (in that order) become the first teammates to finish 1-2 in the AL Rookie of the Year voting since Alvin Davis and Mark Langston of the 1984 Mariners. — Tyler Kepner
Boldness level: 🔥🔥🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: Jacob deGrom wins the first Cy Young award in team history.
Outcome: DeGrom did not win the club’s first Cy Young, but he did get his second Tommy John surgery. He eyeing an August return.
Grade: ❌
This year’s bold prediction: Bold, eh? Well, how about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. replicates his 2021 season, where he finished with a 1.002 OPS and MLB-leading 48 home runs. But this season, the Blue Jays slugger won’t be blocked by Shohei Ohtani’s two-way ways. Guerrero will win the American League MVP and cement himself as one of today’s great hitters. — Kaitlyn McGrath
Boldness level: 🔥🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: The Blue Jays will win the AL East.
Outcome: Oh no.
Grade: ❌
This year’s bold prediction: Nats top prospect James Wood will have a 30-30 season, between Triple A and the majors. He’ll occupy an outfield spot in Washington by early June. His first homer, 447 feet, will be on a sizzling Spencer Strider first-pitch fastball. I have spoken. — Stephen J. Nesbitt
Boldness level: 🔥🔥🔥
Last year’s bold prediction: CJ Abrams will steal more than 40 bases this season. … He’ll make life miserable for opposing pitchers and catchers all season. Just watch.
Outcome: We watched CJ Abrams swipe 47 bags, just as Nesbitt predicted. Now he insists colleagues call him Nestradamus. It’s super annoying. But he has earned the right.
Grade: 🔮
(Illustration by Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Top photo of Trea Turner, Mookie Betts and Yordan Alvarez: Tim Nwachukwu, Chris Bernacchi, Matthew Grimes / Getty Images, Diamond Images, Atlanta Braves)
