Kangaroos legend David King has flagged concerns with a narrow drop off in key areas in Sydney’s game amid question marks on whether the flag favourites are as far ahead of the pack as they seem.
The Swans, despite dropping just their second game of 2024 to Fremantle last week, remain two games and healthy percentage clear at the top of the ladder with eight home and round games remaining.
And while John Longmire’s team’s slick ball movement, led by superstar midfield trio Isaac Heeney, Errol Gulden and Chad Warner, has been such a strength, King noted how that great “threat” has slightly diminished.
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“Most changes that happen to teams at the top of the table are subtle rather than dramatic,” King said on Thursday night’s edition of Fox Footy’s The First Crack.
“And when you look at the ladder and the gap between the top team, the second team and that little gap to third and so on, I think the ladder lies a little bit.
“I don’t know if the gap is as big as what the ladder telling us at the moment and I’m looking fairly at the Sydney Swans.”
The numbers tell the story.
From Opening Round to Round 10, the Swans were ranked No. 1 in the AFL in scores from defensive half turnovers and counter-attack punish on defensive half turnovers, but have dropped to No. 11 and No. 9 respectively since.
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“They’re not massive shifts, it’s only a goal or fractionally more,” King continued.
“When you talk about punish — give them the footy and you bleed — in defensive half they were best in the comp. Through you in a heartbeat and you’re disorganised.
“Well teams are attacking them differently now and when you sit at the top of the table for this long, you get picked apart. They take away some of your uncontested game and force you to play a different game.”
Of their three biggest stars, Heeney has seen a slight drip in score involvements (averaged eight from Opening Round to Round 10 and 6.6 since), while Gulden has improved from 7.1 to 8.6 and Warner has held steady at seven, though is slightly down on turnover scores.
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Sydney has also dropped from No. 4 in the competition in average uncontested marks (excluding forward 50) from Opening Round to Round 10 (81) to No. 15 since (66) in another sign opposition have gone to work on nullifying Sydney’s strengths.
“That’s a dramatic number … all I’m saying is, keep your eye on this. Because if you can reduce one mode of the Swans, you challenge them to find it somewhere else.
“The gaps in the game are not that big. They are subtle, let’s recognise them.
“I’m not saying they’re going to fall off the face of the earth. But what I am saying is after this long at the top you get picked apart by the top four or five contenders and they start disarming you and taking things off you.
“They’ve lost 20 uncontested possessions a game, it doesn’t sound like a lot. But most of the time those possessions are going back to Gulden, Warner or Heeney.”
The Swans will look to get their 14th win of the season when they face St Kilda at Marvel Stadium on Sunday.
