Which AFC teams are best set up for both 2024 and 2025?

The Kansas City Chiefs should already be considered a dynasty, as the only other teams in NFL history to win at least three Super Bowls in a five-year span or less are the 1974-1979 Steelers, the 1992-1995 Cowboys, the 2001-2004 Patriots, and the 2014-2018 Patriots.

Not only is that exclusive company; the Chiefs also reached the Super Bowl in 2020, losing to Tom Brady’s only “non-dynasty” team, and Patrick Mahomes has played in six straight AFC Championships for Andy Reid.

Now comes the crazy part: Is this only the beginning?

In part one of a two-part series ranking all 32 teams based on their chances of winning the Super Bowl in either of the next two seasons—2024 or 2025—the Chiefs come in first place by an absolute landslide. Who is the closest challenger to stop Kansas City from winning their fourth championship in a six or seven-year span?

First, you have to understand the 7 categories that all teams are being judged by:

The 7 categories

HC/Stability – Ranking not only the quality of the head coach, but also how STABLE is he in the job? Mike McCarthy could be a really good head coach, however he’s also on the hot seat.

Recent History – What have you done for me lately?

Non-QB Roster, 2024-2025: Accounting for all the non-QBs on the roster, how much talent is there and how likely is it that the good players will be good and on the team for each of the next two years?

QB/Passing Success – Ranking not only the quarterbacks, but also the passing game; so it’s not just “Geno Smith” in a bubble, it’s Geno plus DK Metcalf, plus the offensive line, plus the offensive coordinator, all culminating in answering “How good is the entire passing offense?”

DEF/Passing Un-Success – So the opposite of the QB/Passing Success question, looking at the defenses and defensive coordinators

Division Hierarchy Situation, also known as DHS – Teams were ranked on a combination of Overall Division Quality + Their place in the Hierarchy. So the Browns are a good team, but they’re fourth in the hierarchy of the toughest division in the NFL.

Dealer’s Choice – For all variables that didn’t get a category, like salary cap situation, and ownership, and probability of injury regression, etc., this is my own personal stamp on the rankings.

Every team was ranked 1-32 in each category and then we split it up into AFC and NFC. You get 1 point for being ranked 1st, 32 points for being ranked 32nd, and just like golf the lower your score, the better.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (Points: 17)

Overall ranking: 1
Best ranking: HC (1), Recent (1), QB (1), Dealer’s Choice (1)
Worst ranking: Non-QB Roster (8)

It was practically a clean sweep for the Chiefs, as they had the top ranking in recent history (obviously), coaching/stability, quarterback/passing success, and dealer’s choice. That gave the Chiefs less than half the point total of the second place team, so if you’re betting on a team to win either of the next two Super Bowls, it has to be Kansas City. Andy Reid recently signed an extension, but even if he retired after 2024, there are several experienced veteran coaches already in place to carry the torch with a solid infrastructure built for Patrick Mahomes.

As for Mahomes’ increasing salary, with a cap hit of $66 million in 2025, the Chiefs can restructure or re-negotiate the deal to bring that down and they probably will in order to keep free agents like Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith. Keeping players or surviving without them hasn’t proven to be an issue for Reid yet, and the Chiefs remain the last team anybody wants to see in a playoff situation.

2. Baltimore Ravens (Points: 38)

Overall ranking: 2
Best ranking: Def/Pass (1)
Worst ranking: DHS (16)

The biggest loss, defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, had a rising star waiting in the wings behind him named Zach Orr, so perhaps we will find out that the Ravens aren’t much worse off on that side of the ball. The one thing holding back the Ravens on this list was their DHS (Division Hierarchy Situation). Though Baltimore sits atop the AFC North, it still appears to be the toughest division in the NFL, and look what happened to the Bengals last year, as they went from AFC Championship game losers in 2022 to out of the playoffs.

3. Buffalo Bills (Points: 39)

Overall ranking: 3
Best ranking: DHS (1)
Worst ranking: Non-QB Roster (11)

Say what you want about the receivers room: I don’t think it matters as much when you have Josh Allen, the second-to-last QB I’d want to see in the playoffs. The Bills have won four straight division titles, and parting ways with Stefon Diggs and Tre’Davious White might end up making the Bills a stronger team overall because it increases the odds that the team will spend the offseason, the season, and the 2025 season with the same players.

4. Houston Texans (Points: 71)

Overall ranking: 7
Best ranking: DHS (4)
Worst ranking: Non-QB Roster (15)

This seems early for the Texans, but look at this way: Which teams have the best odds of winning their division in EACH of the next two seasons? The Texans seem to have the all-important triumvirate of a successful NFL team: DeMeco Ryans, C.J. Stroud, and a really good defense. But they also have a top-10 offensive line, a deep group of supporting skill players, and they just put Danielle Hunter opposite of Will Anderson. The AFC South could be the best division in a couple of years depending on the development of the four quarterbacks, but right now it belongs to Houston. Look at this way: Would you rather be the second-best team in the AFC North or the best team in the AFC South? I’d rather have that guaranteed playoff home game.

5. Cincinnati Bengals (Points: 74)

Overall ranking: 8
Best ranking: HC (6), Recent (6), Dealer’s Choice (6)
Worst ranking: Def/Pass (24)

If we were only ranking quarterback/passing offense and recent success, the Bengals would be in the top 3. There are numerous obstacles to overcome in the next two years, however, including how competitive it is in the AFC North, Joe Burrow’s health, the contract situation for Tee Higgins, and a defense that couldn’t get the job done last season, ranking 32nd in yards per pass attempt and 30th in yards per carry allowed. But they do score high in those other things.

6. Cleveland Browns (Points: 88)

Overall ranking: 12
Best ranking: Def/Pass (2)
Worst ranking: DHS (25)

Have you tried ranking the quarterbacks lately? It gets very hard to do outside of the top 10, if not the top 5. Try it. I put Deshaun Watson and company 19th, which seems high given how bad he’s been the past two seasons in Cleveland, but there aren’t a lot of attractive options behind him either and there is a strong supporting cast of coaches, offensive linemen, and skill players around him. By the way, the strongest correlation of any two categories is between “recent success” and “QB/passing play” so take that as you will. I don’t think saying that better quarterbacks win more games than average or bad quarterbacks will make your head explode.

t7. Los Angeles Chargers (Points: 97)

Overall ranking: t13
Best ranking: QB (4)
Worst ranking: Recent (23), Def/Pass (23)

In his previous stint as an NFL head coach, Jim Harbaugh took over a 6-10 team from Mike Singletary and went 13-3 in his first season. These Chargers are more talented than those 49ers, but Harbaugh didn’t have to worry about Patrick Mahomes back then. Still, look at the talent around Justin Herbert after adding Joe Alt, Ladd McConkey, Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, Will Dissly, D.J. Chark, and Hayden Hurst to an offense that wasn’t lacking in talent and you can see how L.A. might be a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2025.

t7. Jacksonville Jaguars (Points: 97)

Overall ranking: t13
Best ranking: QB/Pass (8), DHS (8)
Worst ranking: HC (19), Non-QB Roster (19)

The Jaguars are in a division they can win, with a head coach who has won a Super Bowl, and a defense that has two under-27 pass rushers who posted double-digit sacks in 2023. Can you believe the Jaguars have been to an AFC Championship game more recently than the Steelers?

9. Miami Dolphins (Points: 100)

Overall ranking: 15
Best ranking: Non-QB Roster (3)
Worst ranking: Def/Pass (26)

The Dolphins are definitely more talented than some teams ranked ahead of them here, and Mike McDaniel is one of, if not the best, offensive play callers in the NFL. But Miami has to figure out how they can pay Tua Tagovailoa while keeping everyone else happy, as well as whether they even should pay Tua, plus many of their stars are either over 30 or will be soon. Are Tyreek Hill and Jalen Ramsey going to be playing at the same high level next year, and can players like Terron Armstead, Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips, and Tua stay healthy? They have as much talent as they do uncertainty.

10. Pittsburgh Steelers (Points: 111)

Overall ranking: 16
Best ranking: Non-QB Roster (7)
Worst ranking: QB (28)

Yes, they have made the playoffs in three of the last four years and went 10-7 last season. They also haven’t won a playoff game since 2016 and they haven’t had a “really good” playoff win since beating the Ravens in the Divisional Round in 2010. Unless Russell Wilson is to the Steelers what Kurt Warner was to the Cardinals, Pittsburgh could have their first losing season since 2003 and they’re a fourth place team if Deshaun Watson is halfway decent for the Browns. But they got top-10 grades in coaching, non-QB roster, and defense.

11. New York Jets (Points: 126)

Overall ranking: T17
Best ranking: Def/Pass (4)
Worst ranking: HC/Stability (32)

If Aaron Rodgers is healthy and not on vacation during the regular season, the Jets roster is as good as it’s ever going to get. The offense gets four new offensive linemen (Tyron Smith, Olu Fashanu, Morgan Moses, John Simpson), two recent early draft picks to round the line out (Alijah Vera-Tucker, Joe Tippmann at center), plus the addition of Mike Williams as the No. 2 receiver.

That’s for 2024. So are they all-in? No, because even if Rodgers is slowing down next year, the Jets are projected to be sixth in cap space in 2025 and owner Woody Johnson has proven that he’s willing to overspend whatever it takes. Keep in mind, the Jets are only tied for 17th so this isn’t like predicting they’ll make it to the Super Bowl, they’re just higher on the list than Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins.

12. Indianapolis Colts (Points: 140)

Overall ranking: 23
Best ranking: Non-QB Roster (13)
Worst ranking: Def/Pass (31)

Between the Colts and the Saints, two teams I’ve got ranked third in their respective weak South divisions, I prefer head coach Shane Steichen to Dennis Allen. And though I’m far from sold on Anthony Richardson, he’s got plenty of upside while Derek Carr has none. I also wouldn’t be shocked if first-round edge rusher Laiatu Latu wastes no time in having an impact.

13. Tennessee Titans (Points: 169)

Overall ranking: 25
Best ranking: Def/Pass (19)
Worst ranking: QB (30)

If firing Mike Vrabel was a bad decision, then why do I feel more optimistic about the Titans because of Brian Callahan? Probably because head coaches who call offensive plays are more in style than those who don’t. Is that fair or unfair? I’m not here to judge. The Titans might have the most room between their QB’s head and the ceiling though: Will Levis was too inconsistent as a rookie to be a starter, so Tennessee brought in Callahan to call the offense and signed Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd to catch passes, and also drafted a new tackle in J.C. Latham in the top 10.

14. Denver Broncos (Points: 189)

Overall ranking: 28
Best ranking: HC/Stability (17)
Worst ranking: Def/Pass (32)

The Broncos had the second-highest ranked head coach situation of any team in the bottom half of the list (I have Kevin O’Connell one spot ahead of Sean Payton), which tells you just how bad Denver looks on paper. I’m not going to criticize drafting Bo Nix, because it’s not that uncommon for a quarterback picked outside of the top 5 at the position to have success, but it would seem that a lot does hinge on that decision. However, the Broncos’ ranking isn’t really low because of Nix. They have a lot of projected starters “with something to prove” because they failed to gain or retain starting jobs on their previous teams, and it’s hard to imagine Denver finishing higher than third in either of the next two seasons.

t15. Las Vegas Raiders (Points: 190)

Overall ranking: T29
Best ranking: Def/Pass (14)
Worst ranking: QB (32)

After the Broncos fired Josh McDaniels in 2010, they reached five straight Divisional Round playoff games and two Super Bowls. Could Antonio Pierce provide a similar rebound in Las Vegas? Maybe only if Peyton Manning comes out of retirement and brings a time machine. (Those Broncos did win a playoff game with Tim Tebow, but this isn’t the 2011 AFC West.) It seems like the Raiders want to do as well as they can this season, then wait to see if Dak Prescott or Tua Tagovailoa becomes available next year. Teams won’t be going the draft route this time, tanking has no endgame, and I think the Raiders anticipate being the most aggressive team on the market in 2025 and that it’s highly probable that a big-name quarterback will change teams.

t15. New England Patriots (Points: 190)

Overall ranking: t29
Best ranking: Def/Pass (12)
Worst ranking: Non-QB Roster (32), Dealer’s Choice (32)

Left tackle Chukwuma Okorafor will be protecting quarterback Jacoby Brissett (pre-Drake Maye), throwing to Kendrick Bourne and Ja’Lynn Polk, with plays called by Alex Van Pelt, who was fired by the Browns in January. Even giving Maye a chance to prove he’s good in 2025, New England could be the worst offense in the NFL right now. Even if the Jets and Dolphins both collapse, will the Patriots beat the Bills or win an AFC Wild Card? Not likely before 2026.

Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports