The Packers had the youngest group of pass catchers in the league with quarterback Jordan Love entering his first season as a starter in 2023. It took some time to mature, but in Weeks 10-18, the Packers averaged an elite 2.49 points per drive. They will have all their young talent returning with Love entering his second season as a starter in 2024. The offense looks ready to entrench itself as one of the best in the league, but they’ll need a breakout or two from one of their young pass catchers.

Even without a bonafide No. 1 receiver, the development of the Packers’ young group of pass catchers is intriguing. Last season, the average age of their top six pass catchers in receiving yards was 23. Bo Melton, who should be their fifth receiver next season, was the oldest of the group at 24. There are so many paths that this young receiving corps can take next season. They could have four of their pass catchers break out or none. The odds of the latter are low, but the distribution of talent could deter one player from dominating the target share.

Packers’ returning WRs/TEs in 2023

Player

  

Receptions

  

Rec. yards

  

Yards/rec.

  

Rec. TDs

  

Rec. yards/game

  

Jayden Reed

64

793

12.4

8

49.6

Romeo Doubs

59

674

11.4

8

39.6

Dontayvion Wicks

39

581

14.9

4

38.7

Christian Watson

28

422

15.1

5

50.9

Tucker Kraft

31

355

11.5

2

20.9

Luke Musgrave

34

352

10.4

1

32

Bo Melton

16

218

13.6

1

43.6

Malik Heath

15

125

8.3

1

9.6

Ideally, Christian Watson will live up to his potential and become a true No. 1 receiver. He’s a height/weight/speed freak and when he’s healthy, he can win downfield and take the top off the defense. Right now, he’s winning with athleticism and his route running leaves much to be desired. It doesn’t help with how many practice and game reps he’s missed with hamstring injuries. This offseason, he saw a specialist who found a huge strength imbalance in his legs. If healthy, he’ll at least be a valuable field stretcher and YAC monster. Watson was drafted highest and should get every opportunity to prove he can lead this group.

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Romeo Doubs had an up-and-down rookie season with Aaron Rodgers in 2022 and struggled with drops. He’s developed into a crafty route runner and started building a strong rapport with Love. He was the Packers’ best receiver in the playoffs catching 10 passes for 234 yards in two games. I really liked his tape and his deceptive body language at the top of routes. Though some are bearish on his ceiling, I think Doubs can be a very good No. 2 receiver and Love seems to have a lot of trust in him.

Wild-card round, 8:22 remaining in the third quarter, first-and-10

Here, the Packers had a heavy play-action concept called with Doubs faking an over route before breaking back across the grain. He was matched up in man-to-man coverage on Stephon Gilmore.

Doubs sold the route so well that Gilmore still had his eyes on Love as Doubs broke back to the right.

Love took a huge hit but delivered the ball to Doubs, who had more than 5 yards of separation.

Jayden Reed seems to have the most definitive role as Green Bay’s slot and gadget player. Coach Matt LaFleur had a package of plays to get the ball into Reed’s hands via direct handoffs, tap-fly passes and screens. Reed is very good after the catch but also can win downfield, particularly on in-breaking routes. He led the Packers in receiving yards (793) and total touchdowns (10) last season as a rookie. I think he’s the most likely to break out next season because of his skill set and since he already led the Packers in several categories in his first season.

The most intriguing receiver is Dontayvion Wicks. He has prototypical size at 6-foot-1, 206 pounds. Last season, he played inside and outside but flashed with whatever he was asked to do. He had a high success rate in nearly every route in Matt Harmon’s “Reception Perception.”

“Overall, there is just so much to like from Dontayvion Wicks’ rookie season Reception Perception profile,” Harmon wrote. “He gets open at all three levels, wins from multiple positions and can make big plays in a variety of capacities.”

Melton got the first target of his career in Week 15 last season and had 15 catches for 211 yards and three touchdowns in the final three games of the regular season. He also had three carries for 21 yards. He’ll likely back up Reed in the slot. There may not be enough snaps and targets, but if there are injuries, he’ll be a player to watch.

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There are so many possible outcomes for this young receiving group. They should at least have two or three very good options even if one receiver doesn’t develop into an alpha and that’ll be plenty good enough with the talent on the rest of the offense.

When Josh Jacobs was a candidate for Offensive Player of the Year in 2022, he dominated against light boxes. That season, the Raiders ranked sixth in rate of rushes into light boxes (35 percent) and third in rushing success against light boxes (53 percent). But that season was an anomaly for him as a Raider where he typically dealt with stacked boxes and inconsistent run blocking.

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Last season, the Raiders dropped to 26th in rate of runs against light boxes (24 percent). Under LaFleur, the Packers have always been one of the top teams in multiple tight-end usage so naturally, they’ll see more defenders in the box. Despite ranking fifth in the percentage of snaps with multiple tight ends last season, they ranked 19th in rate of rushes against light boxes (26 percent). If Love and the passing game progress as expected, it’ll be even more difficult to load the box even if they use multiple tight ends. Jacobs will see fewer defenders in the box than he did in Las Vegas and when he does see stacked boxes, he’ll have better blocking. Packers running backs ranked 13th in yards before contact last season.

Can the O-line at least be an average pass-blocking unit?

The biggest question for Green Bay’s offense is pass blocking. Elgton Jenkins can be a star, but he hasn’t played a full season since 2020. Third-year lineman Zach Tom had a breakout season at right tackle but might kick inside. Left tackle Rasheed Walker, who struggled last season, could be replaced by this year’s first-round pick, Jordan Morgan. Though there are many questions about protection, the Packers have been one of the best teams at developing offensive linemen and continually churn out talent like Tom.

At the very least, the offensive line won’t be a detriment to the offense with a chance to develop into an average to above-average unit, depending on how much Morgan can contribute in his first season. Ideally, Walker improves after his first season as a starter and wins the left tackle spot, allowing Morgan to play guard or perhaps, right tackle and kick Tom inside.

How will LaFleur use his personnel?

Aaron Rodgers resurrected his career playing in LaFleur’s offense, but from the time the coach was hired in 2019, Rodgers had his gripes about how much agency he would have especially at the line of scrimmage where he had autonomy for most of his career. Another issue he had was with the constant use of motion. The top offenses in the last decade have heavily used motion, but some elite quarterbacks don’t like it because it slows down the tempo of an offense (can’t quick snap) and can potentially change the defensive picture.

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In 2021, when Rodgers won his second MVP, the Packers used motion on 53 percent of plays (sixth in the league). Last season, in Love’s first year as the starter, that already high rate jumped to 63 percent. Though coaches from the Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay tree typically use motion to create advantages in the run game, in 2023, some increased their creativity in using it to create advantages in the passing game. Without a veteran quarterback to push back, LaFleur leaned all the way into motion usage.

Week 15, 10:22 remaining in the second quarter, first-and-10

On this play against the Buccaneers, Luke Musgrave was split out wide before shifting inside to tight end. He served as a man/zone indicator for Love. A corner was lined up over Musgrave so Love had a clue that the Bucs were in zone.

After Musgrave got set, Love put Reed in fly motion across the formation.

As the ball was snapped, the defensive end had to peel off on Reed, ensuring that Musgrave had a free release. Musgrave ran an out-and-up as Love executed a play fake to the running back.

The defense was in a Cover 3 zone. The corner on Musgrave’s side ran with the post and the flat player covered Reed, leaving Musgrave wide open for an explosive pass play.

LaFleur’s designs and timing consistently help create explosive and easy opportunities for Love. With a group as versatile and deep as the Packers have, he’ll keep defensive coordinators on their toes with all the personnel groupings he’ll deploy.

LaFleur loves multiple tight end sets and next season he’ll have his most talented tight end duo. Musgrave and Tucker Kraft were productive in spurts as rookies. Musgrave is a size-and-speed freak. He was finding his footing in the offense before missing Weeks 12-17 with a lacerated kidney. He had three receptions for 52 yards against the Cowboys in the playoffs. Kraft didn’t get a lot of snaps until Musgrave was hurt but had 28 receptions and 344 yards in the final eight games of the season.

What will be most interesting is how LaFleur uses his receivers situationally. Even if a clear top three emerges, you can’t let all that talent waste away on the bench. What sort of concepts or plays will certain receivers be used more in? Will he have a certain package of plays for different groupings of wide receivers?

Is Love ready to ascend to top tier?

Love’s emergence as a potentially elite quarterback reduces the possibility of their young skill players or offensive line not reaching their ceiling. One reason the offense started slowly last season was mental mistakes by their receivers — not running their routes correctly or running into each other. Even when their offense was peaking toward the end of the season, there were still instances of receivers running into the same area. With the reduced lapses and increased confidence, the offense performed like one of the best in the league, which crescendoed in a 48-point playoff explosion against the Cowboys.

Love threw for 32 touchdowns and according to Pro Football Focus, his turnover-worthy play rate was the 29th-lowest among qualifying quarterbacks (2.6 percent). His arm talent is in the top tier of quarterbacks. He has the size and athleticism to make plays outside of the pocket and execute option plays. More importantly, in the last quarter of the season, he looked completely comfortable in his process pre- and post-snap. In Weeks 10-18, Love ranked second in expected points added (EPA) per dropback on throws without play action.

Though a quarterback’s stats under pressure could be volatile from season to season, it’s a good sign that Love ranked seventh in EPA per dropback with pressure in his first season as a starter. He has one of the hardest traits to teach a quarterback: pocket management. And when he can’t find or create space, he can make amazingly accurate passes off his back foot. But his game isn’t all flash, he was even more efficient on rhythm passes. He ranked second in EPA per dropback in Weeks 10-18 on throws under 2.5 seconds. He was one of the best quick-game throwers in the league.

In an interview with ESPN’s Kevin Clark, LaFleur said Love’s most impressive throw of the season was his touchdown to Wicks against Dallas in the wildcard round.

Wild-card round, 3:28 remaining in the second quarter, third-and-7

Like Rodgers, Love’s hard count is very effective. On this play, he used it to get the defense to show its hand early. He got both inside linebackers to jump and reveal that they were blitzing. This meant the Cowboys were in Cover 0 (man-to-man with no deep help).

Love knew Wicks had one-on-one without help and they had a touchdown if they could block the pressure. Love got Kraft to motion inside and block. He changed the protection and slid the line to the left.

One of the blitzers got free so Love had to throw off his back foot.

While fading away, Love put the ball in a perfect spot for Wicks more than 30 yards downfield.

Progression isn’t always linear, but Love displayed the physical traits and skills of an elite quarterback and produced like one in last season’s final eight games. If he makes that leap, the Packers already have enough talent to be one of the most explosive offenses in the league. If some of their youth have true breakouts, this could become a truly elite offense for the foreseeable future.

(Top photo of Jayden Reed and Jordan Love: Michael Owens / Getty Images)



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